Florida Gators vs LSU Tigers Point Spread Picks

This line immediately jumps out as an overreaction by oddsmakers after Florida got upset by South Florida. Still, there is talent across the board, with plenty of playmakers for QB D.J. Lagway (4 TDs, one INT). A year ago, Florida lost to No. 5 Texas but bounced back with a 27-16 win over No. 22 LSU as an underdog. The Gators are on a 10-2 ATS run, including 6-1 ATS as a dog. Florida topped LSU despite having the football on offense for just 18:17 as Lagway threw for 226 yards and had no turnovers. LSU comes off a 23-7 win over Louisiana Tech as a 36-point favorite. They averaged just 3.8 yards per carry and have turned the ball over three times in two games. LSU is on a 6-10 spread run, so back the talented underdog in a close SEC rivalry. Play Florida.

Florida can't seem to get back up to their level of dominance and success over decades of football. The Gators could be headed to their fourth straight sub-.500 season. They are just 2-4 in SEC games and for the most part they have been beaten soundly by the better teams in the conference. LSU is 6-3, but has lost two straight. Those two games were vs. Texas A&M and Alabama. They will be hungry for a win. The Tigers are 6-2-1 ATS in their last nine conference games off two straight conference losses. I like LSU to bounce back.

LSU has beaten Florida four times in a row, including last year's 45-35 victory and the Tigers have been underdogs the past three meetings, but this time they're nearly a two-touchdown favorite and rightfully so as the Gators are coming off two outright losses to Georgia and then to Arkansas in overtime to make them 3-6 ATS this season. LSU is 7-1 ATS its past eight games as a favorite of 10.5 or greater. LSU QB Jayden Daniels was in concussion protocol during last week's 42-28 loss to Alabama, but he has practiced in a limited role this week and is likely to play. If not, sophomore Garrett Nussmeier would fill in and he finished 7 of 12 for 89 yards and a TD with no interceptions in an appearance against Army on Oct. 21. This is a high total due to LSU's offensive prowess, but Florida allows only 24.7 points per game compared to 28.2 for the Tigers. Take LSU and the UNDER.