Florida Atlantic Owls vs SMU Mustangs Point Spread Picks

BOCA RATON BOWL - This is a road trip for SMU and are favored, but haven't been covering games (2-4-1 spread run) because of an poor defense allowing 34.2 points per game the last nine contests. They've surrendered 38, 37, 54, 51 and 35 points during that stretch. As a 22-point favorite, they squeaked by East Carolina, 59-51, and squeezed by Tulsa (43-37) as double-digit chalk. SMU is also 19-6 UNDER the total when playing with two weeks rest or more, including their last five Bowl games. They are favored over a Florida Atlantic squad that has won 10 games and is playing this Bowl in its home stadium. Florida Atlantic has won two of the last three Conference USA championships. The offense is solid, leading C-USA in scoring (35.2 points per game) behind QB Chris Robinson (26 TDs, 6 INTs), TE Harrison Bryant (1,004 yards) and a pair of running backs who average 7.0 and 5.2 yards per carry. And the defense is terrific at third in C-USA in scoring defense (22.3 ppg) and first in interceptions (21). Florida Atlantic is 10-1 ATS against teams with a completion percentage of 62% or better. And all college football teams where the total is 70+ are 52-14 UNDER the total in a game involving two teams that commit 1.25 turnovers or fewer, so back the home dog in a game with more defense than the oddsmakers anticipate. Play Florida Atlantic and the UNDER.