Florida Atlantic Owls vs Navy Midshipmen Point Spread Picks

Navy has achieved a 6-0 record through having the nation's No. 1 ground attack, a disciplined defense, and overall team efficiency. These traits, however, don't lead to point-spread success when the margin is this high. The Midshipmen have failed to cover as double-digit point spread favorites each of the last three weeks. Navy's average win margin in its past three games against Temple, Air Force, and Rice has been 4 points. None of the victories were by more than eight points. Florida Atlantic has played Rice this season and beaten the Owls, 27-21, on the road. Florida Atlantic is a direct contrast to Navy. The Owls have a weak defense and a high-volume, explosive passing attack ranking fourth in passing yards behind quarterback Caden Veltkamp. Florida Atlantic wide receiver Easton Messer leads the American Athletic Conference in receiving yards and punt return yardage. Even if Florida Atlantic should fall behind by double-digits, they have tremendous back-door cover ability with their passing attack and special teams, with Jayshon Platt returning kickoffs and Messer averaging 18 yards per punt return. Take Florida Atlantic. 

Zach Abey has been named the starting quarterback for Navy and he played in the last two regular season games last year and both games went UNDER. The Midshipmen also scored a total of 27 points, including a 21-17 loss to Army. Abey also started the Bowl game against Louisiana Tech and was 7-of-12 for 159 yards with an interception and ran for 114 yards on 25 carries in Navy's option-based offense. The defense returns seven starters, including linebacker D.J. Palmore, who had 56 tackles. The Middies also return linebackers Micah Thomas and Hudson Sullivan and defensive backs Alohi Gilma and Sean Williams. Florida Atlantic has suffered three 3-9 seasons in a row and averaged 26.4 points per game in 2016. The Owls brought in Lane Kiffin to turn things around and the defense will be a work in progress, which is a major factor in the high posted total for this matchup. However, the Owls should show much improvement on the defensive side as they return eight starters. Also, Navy has gone UNDER nine of its last 13 games played on natural grass as it can slow down the option offense. Play the UNDER.