Florida Atlantic Owls vs Marshall Thundering Herd Point Spread Picks

This is a key showdown between the top two teams in the Conference USA East division. Marshall's three losses were by a combined 11 points, including a 31-30 loss at Appalachian State as a +7 dog. The defense has allowed an average of 11.3 points during this three-game winning streak, moving up to #23 in the nation in third-down 'D' (33%). Marshall is 9-2 ATS playing on natural grass, and the defense is allowing 17 points per game in conference action, the third-best in C-USA. Florida Atlantic comes off a 28-25 win over UTEP as an 11-point favorite, hanging on despite getting outgained 454-279. They haven't played well in the role of underdog, either, losing by 21, 24, and 17 points, the latter two as a dog of +3.5 each time while losing to Air Force (31-7) and UAB (31-14). College football teams like Marshall that average 34+ points versus a defense that surrenders 21-28 points per game are 72-34 ATS after a game allowing 14 or fewer points, and Marshall has beaten Florida Atlantic the last three years, including a 20-9 win last October. Play Marshall.

Four of the last five meetings have gone UNDER, including Florida Atlantic's 30-25 win last year which went UNDER by 8.5 points. Marshall is scoring 28.8 points per game while allowing 25.3 and this is the highest posted total for any of its games this season. The Thundering Herd is 21-7 UNDER its last 28 conference games and 12-5 UNDER its last 17 October games. Also, the Herd has stayed UNDER 16 of its last 23 games after an ATS win and it comes off a win at Old Dominion while rushing 45 times for 319 yards. The Owls can expect to see more of the time-consuming run game by Marshall and will attempt to improve on its 189.7 rushing yards per game allowed. Marshall is #10 in the country in rushing defense giving up 103.5 yards per game and will be tested by FAU, which ran 40 times against Old Dominion.  Look for all this running the ball to use a lot of clock and keep the scoring down. play the UNDER.

Marshall came into their game vs. Florida International believing the remaining schedule was such that they could run the table and finish the season at 11-1. That changed quickly with a 41-30 upset loss as a -15 point favorite at home. The wheels fell off for the Thundering Herd as they committed three turnovers after committing just three in their previous four games combined. It has bettors and oddsmakers forgetting that this team allowed just 37 total points in their previous five games at 7.4 points per game. Florida Atlantic has been one of the best running teams in the country, but the strength of the Marshall defense has been against the run, and I don't think the Owls are going to sustain as many drives as they are accustomed. The Herd will be focused to erase the taste of a bad loss, and has the ability to slow down the Owls' ground game. Take the UNDER.