Eastern Michigan Eagles vs Toledo Rockets Point Spread Picks

Chris Creighton has done a respectable job at Eastern Michigan. The Eagles have won 56 games with him on the sidelines, while none of his predecessors have won more than 16. Sometimes, you have to dig for numbers and find something special related to Creighton and his program. Creighton has been great as a road dog at Eastern Michigan where his team is 34-15 ATS, however when posted as a home dog they are covering just 42% of all games under Creighton. I don't think these teams are this close. Make the play on Toledo.

This one seems to easy. Take the mighty 8-1 team that is 5-0 at home vs. the 4-5 (0-4 on the road) weakling. Not so fast. This is a ton of points in a look-ahead spot for the big favorite. Eastern Michigan is 5-2 ATS the past seven meetings as it covered as a four-point underdog in a 27-24 loss last year and defeated the Rockets 52-49 as a nine-point dog in 2021. The Eagles had covered four straight this season before losing to Western Michigan on Oct. 28, but they're getting big points tonight against Toledo, which has a rivalry game against Bowling Green on deck. Eastern Michigan has had a disappointing season, but still has motivation to earn a bowl berth, and the Eagles allow only 22.3 points per game, going 8-1-1 ATS their past 10 conference games. Also, Eastern Michigan is 6-1 ATS on the road versus teams with winning home records and 5-1 ATS after allowing fewer than 170 passing yards its previous game. Toledo is 1-5 ATS against opponents with losing records. Under Chris Creighton, the Eagles are 45-32 ATS in the underdog role including 15-6 ATS as a dog in this 10.5 to 21 point range. They are also 36-20 ATS on the road under Creighton including 13-3 ATS on the road after a home loss. Meanwhile, Toledo is 10-24 ATS under Jason Candle when coming off a home win including 4-17 ATS if that win came vs. a conference opponent. Take Eastern Michigan as my Midweek Game of the Year. 

Jason Candle is in his sixth year as head coach of Toledo, and he has made a point of turning the Rockets into a good defensive team. This year's squad is the best yet allowing only 18.3 points per game (#18 in the country) and yielding 326.8 yards per game (#25). The Rockets come off a 34-15 win over Western Michigan for their sixth consecutive UNDER, including an overtime game that still stayed UNDER. Toledo rushed for 192 yards on 43 carries against the Broncos as DeQuan Finn had an adequate game at quarterback, completing only 8 of 24 for 138 yards, but he did have two touchdowns with no interceptions. Eastern Michigan will face a much better defense than it did against Bowling Green, which lost 55-24 to the Eagles. Toledo has won and covered the last two meetings, and Eastern Michigan is 2-10 ATS after winning by at least 20 points (3-9 ATS following an ATS win). Also, the Rockets have gone UNDER in six of their last seven home games. Take Toledo and the UNDER.