Eastern Michigan Eagles vs Old Dominion Monarchs Point Spread Picks

It looks like Eastern Michigan may finally have a coach that can lead them out of the basement they have been in for so long. Chris Creighton has made three stops to get here, compiling a 139-46 record. In his third year, he has led EMU to a 7-5 record, their second winning season since 1995, and the seven wins are a program high. While the defense hasn't arrived yet, allowing 30.3 points per game, the offense scores 30.4 ppg. Old Dominion is in just their fourth year in the FBS, and recorded their best record at 9-3. Like EMU, the Monarchs have not arrived on defense, allowing 27.8 ppg, but they have been dynamic on offense at 36.0 ppg. The offenses for both teams will be the best units on the field, so the likelihood of a lot of scoring is in store. Play on the OVER.

The oddsmakers seem to believe that the game between Eastern Michigan and Old Dominion will be a shootout, but I'm not so sure about that. Eastern Michigan has never been an offensive threat, and over the last 30+ years have averaged just 20.2 points per game - the lowest amount of points of any team over the extended period. Since the start of the 2000 season, those numbers remain exactly the same. They have seen 11 of their last 13 games leave them at 17 points or fewer, so getting into the 60s in a season opener when the offense has not had time to click is going to be problematic. Old Dominion has not been around very long, but have seen their games average over 72 points per contest, so the high number here is based in part on that. However, their lowest scoring game in their brief D-1 history came last September vs. Eastern Michigan, when 20 total points were scored. I expect more than that here, but not enough to top the total, which is over done. This one stays UNDER.

The expectation here is that the fast-playing pass-happy offense of FBS newcomer Old Dominion means that the points will be ringing up faster than the clock can tick. Eastern Michigan is going to need to help some to get this one into the low 70s. However, last week they were shutout and added to the fact that they scored 16 or fewer points in half their games last season. They got just 31 against a weak Morgan State team at home then needed to rally late to get those. I just don't see enough offense on this team to trust that they get to the 20 points or so they will likely need to push this one OVER the top. The oddsmakers depend on a FBS newcomer to get a big number here, so I don't think it is as automatic as it looks. If ODU is up big late, in the game and the first team is off the field, which is quite likely to be the case, I don't see the points coming. Play on the UNDER.