East Carolina Pirates vs Tulane Green Wave Point Spread Picks

East Carolina has a streaky quarterback in Katin Houser and one of the best wide receivers in the American Athletic Conference, Anthony Smith. But it's the Pirates' defense, for the most part, that has been outstanding. If you discount the 34 points the Pirates surrendered to 18th-ranked BYU, they are allowing only 8.2 points to their four other opponents. East Carolina defeated Army, 28-6, in its last game. Army is averaging 30 points in its four other games. The Pirates have an elite run defense, ranking seventh in EPA/Rush. That matches up well with run-oriented Tulane. Jake Retzlaff has seven rushing scores, but the Tulane quarterback has completed just 54.4 percent of his passes, which ranks last among 11 qualified AAC quarterbacks in completion percentage. Overall, Tulane is 104th in passing and 84th in points scored per game at 26.2. The Green Wave held Tulsa to 14 points in their last game and had four sacks. East Carolina ranks 92nd in rushing. The Pirates are heavily reliant on Houser, who can be inconsistent and, sometimes, plagued by poor decision-making and turnovers. Take the UNDER. 

Tulane has won six in a row and is atop the Conference USA standings behind QB Michael Pratt (14 TDs, 3 INTs). Tulane is 68-43 ATS as a favorite. East Carolina has lost four in a row, including a 10-7 loss at home to Charlotte as a 6-point favorite. Three quarterbacks have combined for five TDs and nine interceptions and get no help from a ground game that averages 3.6 yards per carry. East Carolina is 90th in the country defensively in points surrendered (30 per game) and 84th on third down (40.63%). East Carolina is 50-72 ATS versus winning teams, 11-25 ATS after three straight where they forced one or fewer turnovers, and 39-61 ATS at home after playing their last game on the road. Play Tulane. 

Tulane put everything together and played its best game of the season, routing Temple 38-3. Michael Pratt threw for 205 yards and two touchdowns, and the Green Wave piled up 284 rushing yards with Amare Jones leading the way with 92 yards on 12 carries. Duece Watts had five receptions for 114 yards and two touchdowns and the defense held the Owls to 222 total offense yards. It was by far the best showing of the season by the Tulane defense, which had allowed at least 24 points in every game. East Carolina is having a nightmare of a season with a 1-4 record, including losing two close games against Navy and Tulsa. The Pirates are #87 in the country in yards allowed while giving up 37 points per game. The Pirates were expected to be better with 15 returning starters and they have performed well on offense, but they haven't been able to stop anybody defensively. Tulane is 10-3 ATS its last 13 games as a favorite, and it has covered four of its last five games. East Carolina is 16-35-1 ATS its last 52 conference games and 7-16-1 ATS its last 24 November games. Take Tulane.