Duke Blue Devils vs Tulane Green Wave Point Spread Picks

Duke likes to pass under David Cutcliffe, but oddsmakers have been overvaluing their totals with the Blue Devils, on an 11-5 run UNDER the total. Duke had a strong ground attack last year (181.8 yards per game) and loses two-year starting QB Anthony Boone. Junior QB Thomas Sirk (3 TD, 0 INTs, 67 yds) steps in, so look for this offense to go to the ground in September more with senior RB Shaquille Powell (618 yards rushing, 4.6 yards per carry) and sophomore RB Shaun Wilson (598 yards, 7.7 yards per carry). The Blue Devils are on an 8-2 run UNDER the total on the road. The defense will be fine against a Tulane offense that ranked 107th in total offense and 121st in points, failing to score more than 14 in eight of their last nine games. They will lean on a running game that ranked just 91st nationally. Tulane is on a 4-0 run UNDER the total at home, as well as 7-1 UNDER overall. With several key starters returning on defense, Tulane should be closer to its form from 2013 (when it ranked 22nd nationally in yards allowed) than last season (when it dipped to 55th). All in all this shapes up as a low scoring defensive duel. Play UNDER the total here.

Don't look now, but Duke has gotten their program turned around. And after a rare Bowl appearance a year ago, they are apparently heading to another one, and maybe even a better one this season. Duke has opened their season at 3-0 and look to move to 4-0 for the first time in 20 years. Duke has an experienced QB in Aaron Boone, and it is showing early. Boone was successful last season, but threw an interception once every 25 passes. He has yet to throw one this season in 106 attempts. One of the biggest differences in this game is at QB where redshirt freshman Tanner Lee has had some good moments, but a lot of bad ones as he has thrown six INTs already, taking the eight Tulane turnovers into facing a Duke team that has yet to make a miscue is going to be a decisive edge here, beyond the talent differential. Duke is still under the radar at 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 and are starting to believe at home where they are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five. The Green Wave is just 1-4 ATS stepping up in class vs. the ACC, and Duke belongs in that group now. Go with Duke.