Duke Blue Devils vs Miami Florida Hurricanes Point Spread Picks

Duke comes off a tough loss at home to No. 22 SMU, losing 28-27 in OT. The defense allowed 469 yards, including 211 rushing. The ground game averages only 3.9 yards per rush and they've lost two of three after opening the season 5-0, including a 24-14 loss to a 5-4 Georgia Tech squad. This is a tough matchup against No. 5 Miami. The Hurricanes have great balance on offense averaging 5.6 yards per rush with QB Cam Ward (24 TDs, 5 INTs) leading the passing attack. The offense is No. 1 in the country in yards (562.4 per game) and points (45.4 per game). Play Miami Florida. 

Duke picked the right guy to run the football program, off to a winning start under first-year coach Mike Elko, the former Texas A&M defensive coordinator. Duke's defense is #36 in the country allowing 22.7 points per game. Last year, they ranked #126 surrendering 41.8 per game. The offense looks to go ball control under mobile QB Riley Leonard, who leads the team in rushing with 420 yards. Duke is on a 59-38 run UNDER the total on the road. Miami-Florida is 3-3 with an offense that has had to deal with a lot of injuries, including RB Henry Parrish Jr. and wide receivers Key'Shawn Smith and Tyler Van Dyke. Smith was their third-leading receiver in 2021. Miami's defense led the way in last week's 20-14 win at Virginia Tech. Miami is 48-27 UNDER the total against teams that average 425+ yards per game, 40-23 UNDER versus teams that complete 62% or better of their passes, plus 24-10 UNDER after getting 450+ total yards in two straight contests. The UNDER is on a 4-0-1 when these rivals clash and this looks like another defensive duel. Play Duke/Miami-Florida UNDER the total. 

Duke broke away from being the ACC doormat for a few years, but they have edged back toward that bottom this season. Duke has dropped seven straight games and the Blue Devil's have been getting blown out by just about every ACC opponent. Duke has lost six of seven games by 25 points or more and by an average of a woeful 35.5 PPG. Miami, Fla. has really played well over the second half of the season and they are now 4-1 in their last five with the lone blemish coming against rival Florida State who beat them by just three. It's hard to imagine Duke is going to suddenly show up here after getting punished so many games, and will likely just play out the string. Make the play on Miami, Florida.

Miami had beaten Duke four times in a row before losing 20-12 last year putting the Hurricanes in revenge mode for this one as if redeeming themselves after last week's embarrassing loss to Florida International wasn't enough motivation. Duke has lost five in a row while scoring a total of only 71 points and the Blue Devils didn't cover in any of them. Jarren Williams has 18 touchdown passes and only six interceptions for Miami and he did throw for 249 yards and two TDs against FIU, but also was picked off three times. Duke is #115 in the country in total offense yards allowed and #108 in passing yards allowed. However, it was the running game that Wake Forest used to defeat the Blue Devils as the Demon Deacons piled up 334 yards on the ground on 5.1 per carry. The Hurricanes have covered four of their last five following a loss and the Blue Devils are 3-8 ATS their last 11 home games and Miami has covered four of the last five meetings. Miami players said they learned not to take any team for granted after last week and look for the Hurricanes to take it out on the Blue Devils. Take Miami.