Connecticut Huskies vs Vanderbilt Commodores Point Spread Picks

Connecticut is playing hard while still searching for its first win, off a 24-22 loss to Wyoming as a +31 dog. They've lost to Fresno State, a 4-1 team with its only loss to No. 18 Oregon, they lost to Purdue, a team beaten only by Notre Dame, and the other two defeats were to Army and Wyoming, both 4-0. UConn has covered two straight as underdogs of over 30 and faces a Vanderbilt squad that has a terrible offense. Vandy is averaging 12.5 points per game, and their quarterbacks have more interceptions (five) than TDs (four). They were a 21-point home favorite in the opener and lost 21-3 to East Tennessee State as the offense had 3 turnovers while averaging just 2.7 yards per rush and going 5-of-15 on third down. Play Connecticut for a Max Play.

The Huskies began the post Randy Edsal era with an easy win at home vs. Fordham. While a QB by committee approach seems to be the agenda starting out, there has emerged another RB that is showing signs of picking up where the last two big gainers left off. Freshman Lyle McCombs rushed for 141 yards in the opener, and has picked up the apparent void left behind by Jordan Toddman. The Huskies’ strength is always their defense, and it will be no different this year as they have a strong defensive line, and the backs are very solid. Vandy lost their last seven games a year ago by more than 26 point per game, and finished 2-10. The offense was one of the worst in the country at 112, and they scored less than 17 ppg. Larry Smith threw more INTs than TD passes, and he will be severely challenged by the always opportunistic Huskies defense. The Commodores’ strength lies in the secondary, but is soft elsewhere, and UConn does not pass well, so their weakness on defense plays into UConn’s strength. The Huskies are 36-17-1 ATS in their last 54 non-conference games and 20-8 ATS in their last 28 overall. Wins are few and far between for the Commodores, and after an ATS win they are 1-10 ATS in their last 11. Play UConn in this one.

The Huskies have been a surprisingly good team the last several years under Randy Edsall. But they don't look surprisingly good this season, nor for that matter does the entire Big East Conference, which is 1-10 straight-up vs. BCS Conference opponents. The Big East has won 15 games, 10 of which have come to Div-1AA teams and four others to teams that combine to go 2-17 on the season. There is not a single quality win from the entire conference. UConn is no exception. They were beaten soundly at Temple, and struggled to a tie at the half before pulling away from a bad Buffalo team last week. The Huskies managed to outgain the Bulls by just 31 yards at home in that game. Vanderbilt played a 4-0 Northwestern team to a 2-point game in their opener then and went to Ole Miss and won easily by 14. UConn will again be without their best defensive player Scott Lutrus. Jordan Toddman, their top back, missed last game, but should play this week, but at what strength? Vandy is one of the top road dogs in the country at 21-5-1 ATS in their last 27 including 8-1 ATS the past three seasons. I like the Commodores here.