Connecticut Huskies vs Navy Midshipmen Point Spread Picks

Navy took the American Athletic Conference by storm in its inaugural season as a member (11-2 SU, 8-4 ATS) and looks formidable again. Navy has posted winning seasons capped by Bowl berths in 12 of the last 13 years. Navy rolled over Fordham (52-16) last week, showcasing its speed with the triple-option offense and a much-improved defense. Senior slotback Dishan Romine had a breakout season in 2015, ranking third on the team with 378 rushing yards, loaded with speed averaging 10.5 yards per carry. They also have a star in the passing game in WR Jamir Tillman (983 yards in 2014 and 2015 combined). The Midshipmen are on a 10-1 ATS run at home, 12-4 ATS after a spread cover. Inside linebackers Daniel Gonzales and Micah Thomas lead a list of six returning starters from Navy’s strongest defense of the current triple-option era. Under coordinator Dale Pehrson, the Midshipmen ranked #26 in scoring defense last year and #40 in total defense, allowing 21.8 points per game. Pehrson implemented a more aggressive philosophy that produced 15 fumble recoveries - tops in the nation. Navy is 17-7 UNDER the total after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game. They face a Connecticut squad off a 2-10 campaign that didn't impress in last week's 24-21 win over Maine. Last season the offense finished #124 in the nation in total yards per game. The only plus is the UConn defense, as Coach Bob Diaco came to the team from Notre Dame as a defensive wizard and the Huskies improved dramatically, giving up just 19.5 points per game, good for #15 in the country. They are strong again - especially the linebacking corps. Connecticut is on a money-burning 16-33-2 ATS run, including 6-19-1 ATS on the road. They are also 20-8 UNDER after a spread loss. Navy has not lost at home since September 27, 2014, with an 11-game home winning streak. Last season Navy rolled past UConn, 28-18, with 343 yards of offense, 303 of them on the ground. Connecticut ran for just 3.4 yards per carry. Take Navy and the UNDER.

The UConn Huskies are a better team than the last couple of years, but that is more about the defense than anything else, the offense is still a bottom 10 work in progress. UConn went to Missouri and held the Tigers to just 9 points, on the road a very solid and impressive defensive effort. The Huskies offense, however, managed just 6 points, and that has been the problem over the last 15 games that have seen the Huskie offense score more than 22 points just one time. Navy runs the option, but the Huskies have already seen it this year as they have faced Army, and teams that have seen the option already on the season, tend to defend it better than a team that did not. Navy has played five of their last six on the road to the UNDER, while the Huskies now 10-4 to the UNDER in their last 14 at home. Take the UNDER.