Colorado State Rams vs Idaho Vandals Point Spread Picks

IDAHO POTATO BOWL - Idaho has plenty of offensive punch at 28.8 points per game, rolling up 47, 38 and 37 points over the last three games. The defense, though, is not stellar, allowing 59 and 56 points to a pair of Pac-12 schools, plus 30 to UNLV, 31 to UL Monroe and 31 to South Alabama. Idaho is 37-15 OVER the total against a winning team, plus 12-4 OVER in non-conference games. They face a strong Colorado State offense that was saved when former starter Nick Stevens reclaimed the starting job. He tossed 14 touchdowns against just one interception over the final six games and has plenty of weapons to work with in WR Michael Gallup (70 catches, 1,164 yards) and RB Dalyn Dawkins (801 yards, 5.5 ypc). Colorado State has scored 42, 37, 46, 49 and 63 points the last five contests! That 63-point explosion was against Mountain West Champion San Diego State. Colorado State averaged an impressive 47.4 points and 520.6 yards over its final five games, so don't look for much defense. Play this one to finish OVER the total.

The oddsmakers are going off of the Vandals’ success a year ago, when they opened 7-2, but dropped their last three. They are 1-1 at the D-1 level to start the season and their two wins have come against very weak foes. Taking a closer look, their eight wins last season including five by 4 points or less. So, they really played a lot of games that came down to the wire as they either lost or won by a slim margin for most of the season. Colorado State is off to a 0-3 start, but they have faced three good teams. Miami Ohio may look like a bad loss, but the Red Birds were within 9 of Florida in the fourth quarter on the road. I think the hype off of one year of success for Idaho, and the fact that the Rams are 0-3 has this line poised to be had for the live home dog here. The Rams are stepping-up vs. teams with a winning road record as they are 9-4-1 ATS in their last 14. This one is tougher than it looks, and I like the Rams to keep it close.