Colorado Buffaloes vs Texas Longhorns Point Spread Picks

Texas is the bigger bowl name but Colorado has had a strong, shortened season and is delighted to be in a bowl after having a losing record in 2019. Colorado has a strong and balanced offensive attack (421 yards per game), averaging over 200 yards rushing and passing, 29.6 points. This bowl is in Texas, seemingly giving the edge to the Longhorns, but this is the Covid era, providing much less if any home field advantage, and the Colorado roster features 22 players from the state. Colorado is 21-9 ATS versus winning teams, 13-5 ATS as a dog, plus 16-6 ATS away from home against teams that average 28 or fewer possession minutes per game. Texas was expected to compete for a Big 12 title and a bigger bowl but finished 5-3 in the conference. On defense, the Longhorns will miss linebacker Joseph Ossai, who would have been the best player on the field but is preparing for the NFL draft. Texas is 6-14 ATS after a victory of 20-plus points, as well as 20-35 ATS away from home after a game where they forced three or more turnovers. Back Colorado. Also take the UNDER. In his coaching career, Colorado's Karl Dorrell is 9-1 to the UNDER with 2+ weeks to prepare and 7-0 UNDER when facing really bad pass defenses like Texas (those allowing 62%+ completions). Texas' Tom Herman is 14-4 UNDER as a favorite in this range (3.5 to 10 points). And the Longhorns are 17-4 UNDER in the Herman era after a spread win and 19-7 UNDER when facing a winning team. Take the Buffs and the UNDER.

We have watched top team after top team get knocked off this year with Florida, Georgia, USC, and Ohio State all going down already. Last week three of the top four teams lost. It's eerily reminiscent of last year. Could Texas be next? That's not likely, but laying two TDs on the road to a 3-1 team in a "sandwich" game sure looks dangerous. Texas is coming to Colorado between games with their two most hated rivals (Arkansas last week and Oklahoma on deck). Last year, a good Horns team fell by 20 to Kansas State preceding their annual war with the Sooners, and they were a 15 point favorite in that one. Colorado is on the improve and last year at home, they upset the Sooners. They also took Kansas to the wire losing by just 5 points. The Buffs are 18-9 SU (17-10 ATS) in their last 27 Big 12 home games. And I expect the Buffs to be motivated here. The last time they met Texas they were absolutely humiliated 70-3 in the 2005 Big 12 Championship. I like Colorado getting two touchdowns here.