Clemson Tigers vs Ohio State Buckeyes Point Spread Picks

SUGAR BOWL - Ohio State went OVER three of its last four games, and the Buckeyes are averaging 42.5 points per game while Clemson averages 44.9. The Tigers had gone OVER five games in a row before their defense did the job against Virginia Tech and Notre Dame, holding them to 10 points apiece. The Tigers will have a tougher time against the Ohio State offense, which is led by QB Justin Fields, who has thrown for 1,521 yards and 15 touchdowns with only five interceptions and a completion rate of 72.6 percent. Fields actually had his worst game of the season versus Northwestern, but the Buckeyes still managed to pull out a victory and win the Big 10 championship. The star of that game was Trey Sermon who exploded for 331 yards on 29 rushing attempts for an amazing 11.0 yards per carry, and two weeks before he also averaged 11.0 yards with 112 on 10 attempts against Michigan State. Clemson has the likely No. 1 draft pick in Trevor Lawrence, and he completed 25 of 36 for 322 yards and two TDs in the Notre Dame rematch after he missed the first meeting. Travis Etienne ran for 124 yards on 12 yards per carry against the Fighting Irish. Obviously, both teams have several huge weapons on offense. Play the OVER.

FIESTA BOWL - Clemson lost a lot of talent to the NFL after winning it all last year. Now they face a team that is about to lose a boatload of talent to the NFL. Clemson has impressive stats but played a far weaker schedule. And let's not overlook that 21-20 squeaker against North Carolina as a 27-point favorite. They are favored again, but don't match up well with an incredibly talented and well-rounded Ohio State squad. Ohio State was tops in the nation in scoring (48.7 ppg) behind QB Justin Fields (40 TDs, 1 INT) and running back J.K. Dobbins (1,829 yards, 6.5 ypc), while the defense is loaded, second nationally in total defense (247.6 yards per game), third in scoring defense (12.5 ppg). The Buckeyes get after the quarterback even better than the Tigers, leading the nation with 51 sacks, including 16.5 from national leader Chase Young. Ohio State played a tougher schedule, crushing Michigan (56-27) on the road and Wisconsin (34-21). Ohio State is 36-16 ATS against teams that average 230+ rushing and neutral-field dogs like the Buckeyes that outrush their opponents by 100+ yards per game are 37-13 ATS. Play Ohio State.

The Ohio State Buckeyes are 24-1 over their last two seasons. But, they have not had an opportunity to play for the National Championship. Last year they finished 12-0, but were on probation. This year they completed the regular season at a perfect 12-0, but were beaten soundly in the Big-10 Championship game 24-14 by Michigan State, missing out on a trip to the Rose Bowl. So they didn't get a chance in the "gold medal" game, the BCS Championship, or the "silver medal" game - the Rose Bowl. They now have to settle for the "bronze medal" game against Clemson. As a result, I believe this is going to be a very difficult spot for the Buckeyes to be motivated to deliver their "A" game. The past has certainly lent credibility to that as teams that enter their Bowl game at 12-1 with their loss coming in their last game cover just 27.8% of the time. Clemson was drubbed, like everyone else, vs. Florida State. They also lost to South Carolina, who just beat Wisconsin, so this team can certainly line up favorably vs. Ohio State. The Tigers have gone for 49 points or more in six games, and the Buckeyes' defense will be without Spence, and just hasn't been very good even with him on the field. The Buckeyes have faltered down the stretch, losing their last four against the number. Make the play on Clemson.