Clemson Tigers vs North Carolina Tar Heels Point Spread Picks

North Carolina has covered four straight as a road underdog and the Tarheels get another opportunity in this one after a thrilling 47-45 double-overtime win over Duke last week. Drake Maye threw for 342 yards and a touchdown and ran for two scores and Omarion Hampton rushed for 169 yards and a TD. Tez Walker had seven receptions for 162 yards for the Tarheels, who are 5-3 ATS their past eight games. Clemson is having what is considered a down year for the Tigers although they have bounced back from a three-game skid to win their past two against Notre Dame and Georgia Tech. However, the Tigers are just 4-6 ATS and North Carolina has covered four straight as a road underdog overall and four in a row as a dog of 3.5-10.0 points. The Tarheels are 4-0 UNDER after allowing more than 40 points their previous game and they are 4-0 UNDER as underdogs. Clemson allows 21.2 points per game compared to 25.5 for the Tarheels. Clemson is 0-5 ATS after playing Georgia Tech the previous game. Take North Carolina and the UNDER.

North Carolina has the wide-open offense, but Clemson has the defense you need to win championship games. Clemson is 18th in the nation defensively in total yards given up, 27th in points allowed (21.7 ppg), eighth versus the run, and 16th on third down. The Tigers are 33-20 UNDER the total when facing a team with a winning percentage above 75%, plus 19-7 UNDER in December. Clemson has won all three of its games against Top 20 teams and has won four in a row versus North Carolina. Clemson is on a 71-46 spread run in ACC play, 19-8 ATS on neutral fields, and 40-25 ATS against offenses that average 425+ yards. This is the first time all season that North Carolina will be facing a ranked team. North Carolina's defense is terrible, 118th in the nation in yards allowed (452.5 per game), 100th in points allowed (30.9 ppg), 98th versus the run, 112th versus the pass, and 85th on third down. North Carolina is 11-23 ATS after playing a conference game. In addition, North Carolina is 20-7 UNDER the total after winning six of seven of their last eight, while Clemson is 23-10 UNDER after a loss as a favorite. Play Clemson + UNDER the total.

Top-ranked Clemson is a defensive beast again, ranking seventh in yards allowed (247 per game), and fourth in points surrendered (10 per game). Clemson is 14-5 UNDER the total in September games, as well as 25-12 UNDER after scoring 40+ points in their previous game. That defense matches up well against a North Carolina squad off losses to Wake Forest and the Appalachian State Mountaineers. Clemson has one of the best pass-rushing units in the nation, so look for North Carolina to try to control the ball and the clock with its running game that averages 160 yards. All of which means this total is too high. Play the UNDER.

This is a high total for this battle of top 10 teams in the nation, but you don't get this far without good defenses. North Carolina has held eight opponents to 21 or fewer points. The Tar Heels are 8-3 UNDER the total after a spread cover and 10-3 UNDER after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game. Clemson is #1 in the nation, with a defense that has held eight opponents to 22 points or fewer. Clemson is 9-2 UNDER the total against a team with a winning record. Clemson defensive lineman Shaq Lawson (8.5 sacks) leads the nation with 20.5 tackles for loss. The Tigers are 9-4 UNDER the total at neutral sites and 12-4 UNDER after getting more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.This one stays UNDER.