Clemson Tigers vs LSU Tigers Point Spread Picks

LSU fired Brian Kelly in the middle of last season and now hands the program to Lane Kiffin for his first game in Baton Rouge, a marquee opener against a Clemson team that presents a much tougher measuring stick than a typical Week 1 debut. New coaching installs, especially on a stage this big, tend to play tighter and more carefully than a fully installed system would, and that caution usually shows up in scoring more than in style points. Clemson's defense held up well a year ago, allowing just over 20 points a game under Dabo Swinney, continuity that LSU's shuffled roster and coaching staff simply doesn't have on the other side of the ball. LSU's own defense was solid too, giving up under 20 points a game last season, which caps Clemson's ceiling even with a more established system in place after a 7-6 finish of its own. Two capable defenses meeting in a spot where one sideline is running a brand-new operation for the first time points toward a cautious, low-scoring measuring-stick game rather than an early-season shootout. This is the kind of environment where both staffs play it close to the vest rather than take risks. The UNDER is the play tonight.

Clemson went 15-0 last season and is 14-0 this year...yet the defending champs are an underdog to LSU. Clemson has great balance on offense behind QB Trevor Lawrence (3,431 passing yards, 36 TDs, 8 INTs), ranked third in the nation in total offense. They are also on a 26-0 SU/20-6 spread run! And the defense is dominant at second in yards allowed, with the best secondary in the country, and the top-scoring defense (11.5 points per game). Clemson is on a 13-6 run UNDER the total in Bowl games, and 51-21 UNDER versus opponents with a winning percentage above 75%. Clemson is also 17-4 ATS at neutral sites, and 10-1 ATS in Bowl games. LSU is ranked No. 1, but the top seed has not won the national title in the first five years of the College Football Playoff, as top seeds are 0-3 in the title game. They face a confident, talented, and well-coached Clemson squad that is 20-7 ATS against teams that score 37+ points per game, 37-18 ATS as an underdog, and 39-19 ATS when following a spread cover. Last season Clemson held Alabama to 16 points and 4-of-13 on third down in the title game, so back the defending champs in a defensive duel. Play Clemson and the UNDER.