Cincinnati Bearcats vs Virginia Tech Hokies

MILITARY BOWL - The Cincinnati Bearcats made a very fast turnaround coming off a 2017 season that saw them go 4-8 and finishing the regular season in 2018 at 10-2. The Bearcats did it with one of the top defenses in the country as they limited opponents to 16.1 points per game and just 291 total yards. They held five opponents to seven points or fewer. The Hokies lost their starting QB in late September. While they moved the ball fairly well, the ACC defensive teams were not on the schedule and I think they struggle here. A team that wins six games and got the sixth win in their last game and playing their Bowl game as a dog is 58% to the UNDER. Back the UNDER here.

The Virginia Tech Hokies were at one time a team under Coach Frank Beamor that was frequently in the Top 10. That has not been the case lately, but one signature of a Beamor coached team is strong defense. That still has not changed as Tech is one of the best defensive teams in the country, and Bowl dogs, with a strong defense, have been very strong wagers in Bowl games over the years. They have dominated teams with good QBs this season, including Ohio State. They will face another one in Gunner Kiel of Cincinnati in this Bowl game. Cincinnati has a brutal defense, and unfortunately the Hokies are not good offensively, but they will be a bit better against a Bearcat stop unit that is significantly below average. The Hokies stop what Cincinnati has done best, which is throw the ball, and I think Cinncinati is going to struggle offensively in this game. It is tough to sustain a drive against Virginia Tech as they have allowed an average of less plays per drive than any team in CFB this season, which bodes well for them in this one. The Hokies' defense has also led the way following a win, as they have been an amazing 40-19-2 to the UNDER in their last 61 after a win in their previous game, as well as being 14-6-2 to the UNDER in their last 22 following a game where they allowed less than 100 rushing yards. The Bearcats come in at 6-0 to the UNDER after passing for 280+ yards in their last game. We have a live dog in this one, so play Virginia Tech on the moneyline and play the UNDER in this one.

Virginia Tech struggled to find continuity on offense this season, but where they seemed to thrive was in their biggest games against the top defenses. They scored 30 points against Boston College's sixth-ranked defense in the ACC Championship and they put up 23 against BC in their regular season matchup. They were able to score 20 against a Georgia Tech stop unit that ranks #23. They reached 20 points against the #13 ranked Seminoles as well. It was a difficult schedule that saw the Hokies play week-in and week-out against Bowl teams as nine on their schedule have advanced to Bowl games. That schedule has prepared them well for this big game. Cincinnati's defense gets good marks for the season, but in their six games against Bowl teams they allowed 25.7 ppg. In what is expected to be a close game, the Frank Beamer "special teams advantage" may very well come into play. I like the tested Hokies here vs. a team that has had too many offensive question marks all season. In addition, this total has been set much lower than my expectation. Take Virginia Tech and the OVER.