Cincinnati Bearcats vs Tulane Green Wave Point Spread Picks

Unbeaten Cincinnati has it all, they are #10 in the country in total defense while the balanced offense is No. 6 in points (41 per game) behind QB Desmond Ridder (15 TDs, 3 INTs) and RB Jerome Ford (799 yards, 6.8 per carry). Cincinnati is 20-8 ATS on turf and 11-1 ATS versus teams that average 31+ points per game. Tulane is on a 0-5 SU/ATS run, including losing twice as favorites to Alabama-Birmingham (28-21) and East Carolina (52-29). The defense is #128 in the nation in yards (493.9 yards per game) and points allowed (46 per game). Tulane is 14-30 ATS at home after a loss by 21+ points, as well as 13-28 ATS versus opponents who average 6.25+ yards per play. Also, college football teams like Tulane that have gone four straight games with a turnover margin of minus-1 or worse are 10-38 ATS. Play Cincinnati.

There is no question the surprise of the AAC has been a 5-0 Cincinnati team. The Bearcats offense has been below average, generating 6.4 yards per play vs. teams that allow 7.2 to an average opponent. It has been the defense that has dramatically improved over a year ago, as the Bearcats are allowing just 4.3 yards a play. That puts this Tulane team in a tough spot as the Green Wave offense has been 1.3 yards better than average per pass play, but Cincinnati is 1.5 yards better than average, so the Green Wave's passing game will be at a disadvantage for the first time all season. It's going to be tough for both teams to move the ball consistently so, make the call on the UNDER.

Cincinnati is off a tough beat against SMU, losing 31-28 as a +6 dog. The Bearcats running game netted a season-high 249 yards and the defense held SMU's nationally #6 ranked scoring offense (43.6 points per game) to 28 points in regulation. Cincinnati must go 4-0 in November to achieve bowl eligibility and the four remaining opponents (Tulane, Temple, East Carolina, UConn) have a combined record of 11-21. The Bearcats are 8-2 ATS against losing teams, plus 8-3 ATS after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game. Tulane has a losing record but is in the role of favorite, just 1-3 straight up in conference play. Tulane has lost three in a row, including losing 23-10 to Florida International as a double-digit favorite. Tulane comes off a 56-26 loss at Memphis and is 13-26 ATS at home after a loss of 21+ points, as well as 2-12 ATS at home after allowing 225+ rushing yards in two straight games. Play Cincinnati.

This is a big matchup mismatch for the Cincinnati defense as Tulane is having all kinds or problems on both sides of the ball. Tulane has a horrible offense averaging, 18.7 points per game (#119 in the country) while the defense allows 28 ppg. This offense has scored 13, 12, 6 and 13 points the last four games (three losses). Cincinnati has the #12 ranked passing attack in the nation (322 yards per game) while chipping in 142 yards rushing, so they are potent and balanced. And Cincinnati can play tough defense too, allowing 17 and 3 points the last two games. The Bearcats are 4-0 UNDER the total against a team with a losing record as well as 4-1 UNDER the total in conference games. This one stays UNDER.