Central Florida Knights vs Connecticut Huskies Point Spread Picks

Connecticut's football fortunes have really taken a hit in recent years and even the return of coach Randy Edsall hasn't made much difference. The Huskies come off a dreadful 38-3 drubbing at the hands of Indiana. The game went UNDER by 16 points for the third UNDER in as many games for UConn this season and the Huskies are averaging only 16.7 points. Connecticut managed only 145 yards of offense against the Hoosiers and just 51 on the ground. Quarterback Jack Zergiotis finished 14-of-28 for 90 yards with no touchdowns and an interception. Central Florida had its 25-game regular-season win streak snapped when Pittsburgh scored a touchdown in the final minute. Gabriel Dillon passed for 338 yards and two TDs for the Knights, but also threw two interceptions. UCF has stayed UNDER six of its last eight conference games and the Knights are 36-13-2 UNDER their last 51 September games. The Huskies are 6-1 UNDER their last seven versus teams with winning records and don't have enough offense for this high posted total. Play the UNDER.

Central Florida is off an unbeaten season and ranked in the top 25 again, led by a talented defense. They will lean on that defense in Week 1 as the offense has some holes to fill, losing last year's #1 receiver Tre'Quan Smith and tight end Jordan Akins, both of whom left early for the NFL Draft. The Knights are on a 5-2 run UNDER the total away from home and they head to a rebuilding Connecticut squad. The Huskies are learning a new offensive playbook as coordinator Rhett Lashlee left for SMU and they bring in John Dunn from the Chicago Bears. Last fall the Connecticut offense averaged 23.6 points to rank #103 in FBS and there are questions on a young, remodeled offensive line and at running back. UConn is on a 14-6 run UNDER the total at home and this Week 1 total is too high. Play the UNDER.

UConn Coach Randy Edsall knew what he was getting into when he was rehired to lead the Huskies. The Huskies defense is one of the worst in the country, and will be no match for Central Florida who is looking to remain unbeaten, and land a major Bowl game bid. The one bright spot for UConn is the offense which has done a reasonably good job on the season, certainly elevated from what we have seen here over the past six years. The Knights are off a very hard fought and physical game vs. SMU, and needed everything they had to come away with a hard earned 31-24 win. I just don't see this team bringing the "A" game for this one as this is the eighth straight week they have been in action. With South Florida looming down the road, that is the game that will likely determine their postseason fate. The Huskies can score enough to stay within 40 points, and a good chance for a back door cover as well. Play on UConn.

This is the third road game in four weeks for a Central Florida offense coming off a home loss to Temple, averaging just 2.4 yards per carry and under 300 total yards. Central Florida has used three quarterbacks already, going with freshman McKenzie Milton now. The one-dimensional offense ranks #71 in yards and #99 in passing. Central Florida is 33-16-2 UNDER the total after getting fewer than 100 yards rushing in their previous game. Connecticut plays great defense at home, holding Cincinnati to nine points (20-9 victory) and Virginia to 10 points (13-10 win). But the Connecticut offense is weak, #103 in the nation in yards, #114 in scoring (20.9 points per game). UConn is on a 14-6 run UNDER the total with that conservative offense and this shapes up as a defensive duel. Play Central Florida/Connecticut UNDER the total.