BYU Cougars vs South Florida Bulls Point Spread Picks

This is a terrible matchup and situational spot for South Florida as they head out West to face a Top 20 team. South Florida has stepped up twice already and flunked both tests, getting crushed by NC State (45-0) and Florida (42-20). South Florida comes off an easy win over Florida A&M, but they are 1-7 ATS after a victory, as well as 7-21 ATS after getting 200+ yards rushing in their last game. Unbeaten BYU plays its third straight home game, and the last two were impressive while topping No. 21 Utah (26-17) and No. 19 Arizona State (27-17). This is a talented and balanced team that was 11-1 last year, ranked No. 10 in total defense, and No. 4 in scoring defense (15.3 points per game). That included early season wipeouts of Navy (55-3), Troy (48-7), and Louisiana Tech (45-14). BYU is 10-2 ATS after one or more victories and holds all the cards in this one. Play BYU.

South Florida was struggling to run the ball until they met UConn who has been one of the worst teams in NCAAF over the last decade. The Bulls offense ran for over 300 yards in that game. The Bulls needed to find a winning game because starting QB Blake Barnett is nursing an ankle injury. BYU has lost its QB, Zach Wilson, so this game is likely to be played conservatively, and the team that can run the ball the best is going to be in good shape. BYU has not run the ball well but has played one of the toughest schedules in the country. I think they find more room to run vs. the Bulls, the weakest team they will have played all season. The Bulls ran all over UConn and SC State an FCS team but have generated just 173 yards running on 86 carries in their other three games. Give the points and play on BYU.