BYU Cougars vs East Carolina Pirates Point Spread Picks

East Carolina lost a close 24-17 matchup with N.C. State, but then the Pirates demolished their next two opponents, Campbell and Coastal Carolina, by a combined 94-3 score. They have won seven of nine since Blake Harrell took over the coaching duties in midseason last year. The Pirates are 8-0 ATS off a double-digit win versus non-conference opponents. Katin Houser was 28 of 37 for 293 yards and two TDs with one pick against Coastal Carolina, which was held to 239 total yards. East Carolina is 4-0 ATS after totaling more than 450 yards in its previous game. This figures to be a more challenging test for BYU after it edged Stanford 27-3 as a 20-point favorite, and it went UNDER by 14.5 points. East Carolina has gone UNDER five of its past six games, and it is 7-1 UNDER after allowing fewer than 100 yards rushing in its previous game. The Pirates are 8-2 UNDER as underdogs, and six of their past eight September games have stayed UNDER. They have covered four of five home games. Take East Carolina and the UNDER. 

East Carolina's offensive numbers are a bit skewed after a four-overtime win over Memphis, 47-45. They also lost to Navy in double overtime, 23-20, and in their last road game, they lost 24-9 at Tulane. East Carolina is 13-6 UNDER the total on natural grass. BYU's offense has fallen apart losing three in a row while averaging 23 points. They were favored at Liberty last week but lost, scoring 14 points with just 258 total yards. BYU is 75-47 UNDER the total versus winning teams, 35-21 UNDER on natural grass, plus 61-37 UNDER at home when working with six or fewer days of rest. Play East Carolina/BYU UNDER the total.

East Carolina has been impressive, winning two in a row while riding a 3-1 spread run. They beat Virginia Tech as a +10 dog, 35-28, then thumped SMU last week, 49-23. In week two they went to the Swamp at Florida and as a +21 dog lost 31-24 going 10-of-20 on third down as QB Blake Kemp had 333 yards, three TDs and one pick. That close call looks even more impressive with the Gators still unbeaten. The Pirates should really be 4-1 as they lost to Central Florida on a 51-yard Hail Mary pass as time expired. QB Kemp is the traditional pocket quarterback who has completed over 70% of his passes with eight touchdowns to five interceptions. The Pirates are 13-6 ATS on natural grass, plus 7-2 ATS in their last nine non-conference games. They can control the ball and the clock with this offense, which will keep scoring down and their defense fresh. BYU lost starting QB Taysom Hill, so freshman Tanner Mangum (six TDs, five INTs) has been running the offense. BYU plays tough defense, too, at 22-10 UNDER the total against a team with a winning record, as well as 5-2 UNDER vs. a team with a winning road record. The Cougars are also 1-4 ATS in their last five games in October and this one shapes up as a close one with less scoring than oddsmakers anticipate. Take East Carolina and the UNDER.