Buffalo Bulls vs Ohio Bobcats Point Spread Picks

Both these teams are 4-3 coming into this game, and the winner will come out of the game at 3-1 in the MAC Conference, so a lot riding here. Ohio, U. had a pair of games vs. much higher level competition in Syracuse, and Kentucky, but otherwise has allowwed just 18 PPG. The Bulls have been very good defensively in their four wins as they have allowed just a stingy 12.8 PPG. This total is pushed up as both teams' higher scoring games has generally been against competition from a much higher level conference, and with a lot on the line here I expect the lower numbers to be more determining than the ones vs. better competition. These teams have played six of their last nine meetings to the UNDER. I like the UNDER in this one.

Buffalo's banged-up offense has averaged 17 points over the last three games. That included a 24-14 loss at home to Bowling Green as a favorite. Ohio had no trouble against Bowling Green, winning 38-7 on the road. Ohio has a winning conference record, just one game behind Miami of Ohio for first place in the MAC East. Ohio has the top defense in the MAC in points (15.7 per game allowed) and total yards allowed, and is 9-2 ATS against pass defenses that allow 58% completions or higher. Buffalo's defense is ninth in the 12-team conference in points given up (29.1 per game), plus 10th in total yards allowed. Buffalo is 1-8 ATS after a MAC loss and 3-15 ATS versus teams that control the ball for 32+ minutes and 21+ first downs per game. Ohio whipped Buffalo a year ago, 45-24, as an underdog with the edge in yards of 474-260, including in rushing yards 157-22. Play Ohio.

Ohio had a tough September schedule, including games against Syracuse and Northwestern. They've played well since MAC play started with a 37-17 rout of Akron and a 30-27 loss to Central Michigan as a +5 dog. Ohio is 14-5 ATS as an underdog, including 11-5 ATS as a road dog. Coach Frank Solich was a proponent of having a strong ground attack/offensive line. Solich stepped down in July, but he left a good offensive nucleus for coach Tim Albi, the former offensive coordinator, as this Bobcat squad is averaging 5.5 yards per carry, led by RBs De'Montre Tuggle (448 yards, 6.4 yards per carry) and O'Shaan Allison (267 yards, 4.9 per carry). Ohio is 14-4 ATS on the road versus teams that average 4.75 yards per carry and 10-1 ATS away against teams that force one or fewer turnovers per game. Buffalo is a big favorite, but they have lost its first two MAC games while allowing 72 points. QB Kyle Vantrease has as many picks (three) as TDs, and the defense just surrendered 48 points, 407 yards passing, and 226 yards rushing to Kent State. These teams played an OT game, 21-20, when they last met, and this shapes up as another close one. Play Ohio.