Buffalo Bulls vs Massachusetts Minutemen

Fixing the run defense was a priority coming into the new season. Massachusetts brought in defensive linemen Etinosa Reuben (Clemson) and Jaylen Hudson (Wake Forest) and they held Eastern Michigan to 3.8 yards per carry and Toledo to 83 yards rushing, just 3.8 yards per carry. The offense, too, has looked better getting 329 and 384 yards in two contests. Massachusetts is 4-1 ATS in its last five road games. Buffalo comes off a 3-9 season and has split its first two games. They're in a tough stretch, off a 38-0 loss to No. 9 Missouri with a game on deck at No. 25 Northern Illinois. QB C.J. Ogbonna has 15 TDs and 11 picks in his college career and this season is completing just 45.5% of his passes. Buffalo is on a 7-12 ATS run, including 2-5 ATS at home. Play Massachusetts.

The football program at UMass has just never gotten off the ground. The Minutemen are 3-33 SU over their last 36 games. They have beaten Akron, UConn, and St. Bonaventure. Buffalo isn't the best team in the country, but the Bulls are considerably better than any opponent UMass has beaten in the last four years. This team has been so bad that the Minutemen have lost close to 53% of all their games by 17 or more points. UMass has covered just 43.3% of all games where the line was -17 or more points. Just can't get there on UMass. Make the play on Buffalo.

The UMass Minutemen had a lot of trouble adjusting to the elevated play in the FBS, but they have made some strong progress this season. They came into this season having gone 2-22 straight-up in their first two years in the FBS, and started this season at 0-6 to fall to 2-28. The light finally came on as the Minutemen are 3-2 in their last five games, and a win here would finish them at .500 in conference play, that's quite an achievement, and that is why I think they will be the motivated team here. Buffalo had a strong team a year ago, but most of the key pieces are gone and they have slipped significantly this season. The Bulls have lost four of their last five, and have allowed 36 points or more in 5 of their 10 games on the season. The UMass offense has been clicking and that is why they are suddenly finding the win column and should score plenty here. The Minutemen's game has translated well on field turf where they are a stunning 8-1 ATS, and for a bad team those numbers are big. Take UMass.

UMass comes in at 1-5 and one of those losses came by double digits against Maine. The Minutemen's lone win came last week when they were favored against Miami Ohio. In the four games against quality opponents like Buffalo, UMass has been outscored 21-134, or by 28.3 points per game on average. After starting the season 0-2, the Bulls have reeled off four straight wins. Last week they shut out Western Michigan on the road 33-0, easily covering the 9.5 point spread. This one could and should get ugly real quick. Lay the points on Buffalo.