Bowling Green Falcons vs Western Michigan Broncos Point Spread Picks

Bowling Green went UNDER by 12.5 points while defeating Central Michigan last week and the Falcons are 4-1 UNDER their past five games while allowing only 16.4 points per game. Five of the past six meetings between these teams, including the past three in a row, have stayed UNDER. This is a high posted total due to Western Michigan's high scores, but the Broncos will be facing one of the MAC's better defenses and the Falcons have allowed just 21 points per game this season. They are #13 in the nation in pass defense. The UNDER is 6-0 in Western Michigan's past six games as a road underdog of 3.5-10.0 points. Take the UNDER.

Western Michigan is 2-2 in the MAC and has lost two of three. The defense is No. 65 in the nation in total yards allowed and No. 65 in yards per play allowed (5.73), while the offense is the third-worst in the MAC in scoring (20.8 ppg) and the second-worst in total yards. Their three quarterbacks have combined for 8 TDs, 11 INTs as freshman QB Treyson Bourguet (48.5 completion percentage) is the current starter. And they get no help from a running game that averages just 3.3 yards per rush. Western Michigan is on a 4-10-1 spread run in MAC play, 10-22 ATS after a victory, plus 8-21-1 ATS following a spread cover. Bowling Green is 3-1 in the MAC and has no such signal caller concerns with senior QB Matt McDonald (16 TDs, 3 INTs) having a fine campaign. They've won two straight as underdogs each time over Miami of Ohio (17-13) and at Central Michigan (34-18). Bowling Green is 23-10 ATS after allowing 125 or fewer rushing yards in two consecutive games, so back home field. Play Bowling Green.

Bowling Green has finally got the offense going, scoring 20 points in each of the last two games. That included a 20-7 win over Toledo as a +27 underdog! The Falcons are 33-16-1 ATS after getting less than 170 yards passing in their previous game. They head out on the road to a Western Michigan squad that is a huge favorite, but a .500 team. Defense is the problem, ranking #108 in yards allowed (469.6 pg), #70 in points surrendered (29.9 pg), including giving up over 50 points twice. They come off a 34-27 loss to Eastern Michigan as a 10-point favorite. Western Michigan is 4-9 ATS in MAC games, plus 1-10 ATS after allowing 450+ total yards in their previous game. Play Bowling Green.

First-place Western Michigan is 5-0 in the MAC and will probably face Bowling Green in the MAC title game. Junior quarterback Zach Terrell continues his climb up the charts as one of the best players in the MAC and one of the all-time greats at Western Michigan. He has 23 TDs, and six picks this season, good for second in the MAC and #10 in the country. He has 57 TDs for his career, which is fourth-best in school history. This is a balanced offense for the Broncos with RBs Jarvion Franklin (660 yards, 4.9 ypc) and Jamauri Bogan (646 yards, 6.5 ypc). The Broncos are on a 16-5 ATS run, 7-3 ATS in their last 10 home games. The defense is strong, too, off a 54-7 win over Ball State. Ball State had some offensive weapons in the passing game and Western shut them down. Bowling Green has given up 25 sacks this season, which is worst in the MAC. Bowling Green is also 2-5 ATS after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game. Last season Jarvion Franklin ran for 141 yards and the Broncos allowed Bowling Green to possess the ball for just 1:25 in the fourth quarter in Western Michigan's 26-14 win. Bowling Green is 0-4 ATS in their last four meetings, and just 1-4 ATS at Western Michigan. Grab the talented home dog and play Western Michigan in what could be a preview of the MAC Championship game.