Bowling Green Falcons vs Tulsa Golden Hurricane Point Spread Picks

This will be the last year for Tulsa in C-USA as they are headed for the newly formed AAC next season. There is no doubt that Tulsa has a powerful offense, but they will be facing a team in Bowling Green that is far from a slouch on defense. The Falcons opened at The Swamp last year and held Florida to 27 points and 365 total yards. Last season, the Falcons' defense finished No. 6 in the FBS, allowing just 297 yards per game. They held opponents to 16.8 points per game in the process. At home they gave up a ridiculous 13.4 per game! Bowling Green has the best parts of that defense back this season, and should be an equal to or an even better force this season. Defenses tend to be more ready than offenses in the beginning of the season, with less rust to shake off. Bowling Green went 10-2 to the UNDER a year ago. And despite a high-powered offense, Tulsa played four of their five games out of the conference UNDER the total, and six of their last eight overall. Play this one UNDER the total.

This total is sky-high. But, we think this is a case of the bookmakers not being able to reasonably set it high enough. There was one other Bowl game this year with a total in the 70s - Central Michigan-Purdue. That game saw 99 points scored. The five Bowl games with the highest totals this year have gone 5-0 OVER. Tulsa scored 39.5 ppg this year and had no dropoff onthe road. They increased their scoring as the season ended. With this game being played on turf, Tulsa could easily reach 50. Their defense allowed 37.1 ppg on the road this season and got worse as the season closed. Tulsa head coach Todd Graham is a perfect 9-0 OVER hin his coaching career on the road facing a poor pass defense (58%+ pass completion) and BG allowed a whopping 63% this year. Yes, this is high, but we see 80+ being scored here.