Bowling Green Falcons vs South Alabama Jaguars Point Spread Picks

The Bowling Green Falcons have really fallen off the radar screen in recent years while South Alabama opened their season as a skinny favorite at home vs. Southern Miss and went on to an uncontested 31-7 win. Bowling Green is five years into a rebuild with no end in sight, and my pre-season rankings put the Falcons in the bottom five of all FBS teams, a very familiar place of late for the Falcons. Last week, Bowling Green went to Rocky Top and suffered a major loss of 34-6 in a game where they were out-rushed 331-32. Tennessee could have named their score but just put the ball on the ground and took the win. South Alabama is not a strong program, but beating Southern Miss by 24 only serves to boost the confidence of the Jags, who should have no problem getting the cover here. Make the play on South Alabama.

Bowling Green lost a lot of their defense from last season, but still managed to get to the MAC Championship game this year. That didn't work out too well, as they were crushed by Northern Illinois. While the defense did improve as the season progressed, the offense regressed, generating just 5.5 yards per play vs. teams that would combine to allow 5.8. The defense was average vs. the pass and below average against the run, but they showed improvement in the second half of the season. They should fare fine here vs. a South Alabama team that has a brutal offense, one that averages just 5.1 yards per play vs. a schedule of teams that allow 5.9. The Jaguars defense is above average, so this game should really be won or lost by the defenses. Overall the Falcons are 25-12 to the UNDER over the past three seasons including 11-2 UNDER when the total is in this range (49.5 to 56). Teams that lose a conference Championship game and are playing in a December Bowl game are 20-2 to the UNDER since 2006. Play on the UNDER in this one.