Boston College Eagles vs Cincinnati Bearcats Point Spread Picks

Boston College's offense was one of the least effective in the country a year ago, scoring just over 25 points per game in a 2-10 season under Bill O'Brien, and that number didn't climb much against a Cincinnati defense that allowed under 25 points per game itself. Scott Satterfield is entering his fourth season running the program, a veteran staff with an established identity rather than one installing something new, and a heavy favorite that stable doesn't need to air the ball out against an overmatched opponent to win comfortably. Cincinnati's offense was productive last year at nearly 32 points a game, but the more likely path here is a program leaning on the ground game and protecting its roster early in the year rather than opening up the passing attack against a defense that gave up nearly 33 points a game of its own. Boston College simply doesn't have the firepower to force a track meet, and an established staff with nothing to prove against this level of opponent tends to play conservatively rather than run up the score. This total depends more on Boston College keeping pace than on Cincinnati's ceiling, and last year's tape says that isn't walking through the door. This one stays UNDER the number. 

BIRMINGHAM BOWL - Boston College beat up on some low-level competition this year, but when they faced Bowl-quality teams, the story was quite different. Versus Clemson and Notre Dame, they scored just 7 points in each game. Dating back to last season, the Bearcats are a perfect 6-0 ATS vs. teams like BC that allow 8+ passing yards per attempt. Cincinnati is 10-3 UNDER in coach Luke Fickell's third year as coach and his defense is #52 in the country in yards allowed while giving up 21.7 points per game. Boston College is #6 in rushing yardage, a time-consuming approach, and will tend to make this matchup lower-scoring. The Eagles will be without running back AJ Dillon, who rushed for 1,880 yards and 15 touchdowns. Dillon instead will prepare for the NFL Draft. Cincinnati held three opponents, UConn, USF and Temple to a total of 33 points and then closed the season with two losses to Memphis while holding the high-powered Tigers offense to an average of 32.5 points, which is eight points below its average and both games went UNDER. The UNDER is 36-14-2 in Boston College's last 52 games after giving up fewer than 20 points its previous game and that game versus Pittsburgh stayed UNDER by seven points. The UNDER is 20-8 in Cincy's last 28 games after a loss. Play the Bearcats and the UNDER.