Boise State Broncos vs Troy Trojans Point Spread Picks

Boise State got back on track and won the Mountain West Championship finishing 11-3, and the Broncos return 16 starters featuring quarterback Brett Rypien, who completed 62.6 percent of his passes for 2,877 yards and 16 touchdowns with only six interceptions. Alexander Mattison also returns at running back after averaging 5.1 yards per carry. Boise State went 8-5-1 ATS while capping off the season with a 38-28 win over Oregon as a seven-point underdog in the Las Vegas Bowl. The Broncos beat Troy, 24-13, last September and covered as a 10.5-point favorite. Troy comes off an 11-2 season, but it loses starting quarterback Brandon Silvers and top running back Jordan Chunn. Also, the Trojans return only five on defense and just two on the line. Kaleb Barker and Sawyer Smith will compete for the starting QB job, but both have limited experience. Troy is 1-7 ATS its last eight home games, and Boise State is 6-1 ATS its last seven road games. Also, the Broncos have covered the number their last four games versus Sun Belt teams, the Trojans are 1-4 ATS their last five September games, and 2-5 ATS their last seven non-conference games. Lay the points with Boise State.

Troy had a breakout season last year, logging 10 wins for the first time ever as an FBS member. I see a lot of value here, as most of the Troy offensive success has come against a weak schedule. QB Brandon Silvers returns after being selected first team all-conference from last season, and a lot of pieces from that apparently high-powered offense returns. Here is the game changer. In 2015, Silvers led the offense to 36.2 points per game against losing teams, but just 22.7 ppg vs. winning teams. The 2016 numbers are nearly identical. The Trojans put up 39.8 ppg vs. losing teams and 24 ppg vs. winning teams. Enter Boise State and the offense is likely to be held down again, especially in the season opener. Brett Rypien returns at QB for Boise State. The Broncos led the MWC in total yards but were just sixth in scoring. Gone is the all-time leading reciever in school history, Thomas Sperbeckm, as well as RB Jeremy McNichols, who was drafted by the NFL. It's hard to see this team being as productive, especially early. Make the play on the UNDER.