Boise State Broncos vs Nevada Wolf Pack

The first playoff poll came out this week and at 7-1, Boise St. is the last team in at #12. Boise St. has scored 56 or more points four times this season, and if you haven't heard of Ashton Jeanty, his numbers are Heisman hopeful. Jeanty has run for 1,525 yards on 190 carries which is good for eight yards per carry. He has also run for 20 TDs on the season. Boise St. has won five of their last six games by 21 or more points, and the Broncos are on a five-game ATS win streak. Nevada no longer has a chance for a Bowl game, so I'm not sure how much fight this team will have. Nevada has been hopeless facing Boise St as they are 2-16 SU against them in the last 18 meetings. Broncos won't be slowed down here. Make the play on Boise St.

Nevada came into the season as one of the least experienced teams in the country with just two returning starters on offense and four on defense. They opened the season 2-0 against some soft competition but have now dropped seven-straight games, getting outscored 34-18 in those losses. Boise St. destroyed another awful team beating Colorado St. 49-10, and this one looks like it could easily replicate that outcome. Boise St. has held six of their last seven opponents to 20 points or fewer. The Broncos are averaging 33.6 PPG in their last five, and could easily top this mark vs a woeful Nevada team. Make the play on Boise St.

Nevada is off of a 7-2 campaign and continues to be undervalued, on a 12-5 spread run. They were a dog in the opener but beat Cal of the Pac 12, 22-17. They have a balanced attack behind junior QB Carson Strong (7 TDs, 2 INTs) and power RB Toa Taua (6.2 yards per carry). Nevada is 11-3 ATS after surrendering 200+ yards rushing in the last contest, as well as 23-11 ATS after a game gaining 280+ yards passing. The Wolfpack come off a bye week with extra time to rest and prepare. Boise State had to play last week and has two losses already, including a 21-20 defeat to Oklahoma State as a favorite. Boise is 8-19 ATS versus teams that commit one or fewer turnovers per game. The ground game hasn't been impressive with leading rusher George Holani averaging 3.2 yards per attempt, and the whole backfield is averaging 2.5 yards per attempt. Nevada has covered six of the last eight meetings, and college football teams like Boise State that are favored between 3.5 to 10 points are 22-54 ATS if they're averaging 125 yards rushing or less. Play Nevada.

These are a pair of teams that can run the football and play tough defense. Boise State is #18 in the nation defensively, allowing 311 total yards per game. Boise comes off a 19-13 loss at home to San Diego State and the Broncos are 15-5-1 UNDER the total after getting fewer than 100 yards rushing in their previous game. Nevada runs a defense that is similar to San Diego State's, a 3-3-5 system that focuses on the run, employing five defensive backs. They are good at pressuring the line to create mistakes. The Broncos mustered just 229 total yards against the Aztecs last Saturday, while the Wolf Pack held Fresno State to 271 yards in a 21-3 loss. Nevada's defense allowed just 30 yards rushing. Nevada is 10-4 UNDER the total when following a double-digit home loss, plus 35-17 UNDER on field-turf. The Wolf Pack defense is seventh in the nation in tackles for loss per game (8.8) and third-down conversion defense (26.1 percent). With the UNDER 5-1 the last five meetings, look for more defense than the oddsmakers anticipate. Take this one to finish UNDER.