Baylor Bears vs Vanderbilt Commodores Point Spread Picks

ACADEMY SPORTS + OUTDOORS TEXAS BOWL - Rebuilding Baylor won a single game a year ago and is a .500 team this season. The Baylor defense is awful allowing 172.8 rushing yards per game and ranks #87 in the nation in points surrendered (31.2 per game). On offense, Bears sophomore quarterback Charlie Brewer was sacked a Big 12 conference-high 37 times on an "attack" that had a conference-worst minus-9 turnover margin. And the news gets worse as they will be without star receiver Jalen Hurd (knee injury), the Big 12's offensive newcomer of the year. Baylor is 4-11-1 ATS following a straight up win, plus 5-15-1 ATS after getting 280+ yards passing in their previous game. They run into Vanderbilt of the SEC, with a defense ranked #49 in points allowed and a balanced offense that passed for 240 and ran for 157.6 yards per game. They averaged 27.7 points behind QB Kyle Shurmur (23 TDs, 6 INTS) and running back Ke'Shawn Vaughn (1,001 rushing yards, 10 TDs). Vaughn averaged an SEC-best 6.95 yards per carry and led SEC backs with seven runs of 40 or more yards. The Commodores are 14-5 ATS after allowing 275 total yards or less in their previous game, plus 20-9 ATS after allowing less than 20 points in their last contest. Play Vanderbilt.