Baylor Bears vs SMU Mustangs Point Spread Picks

Many question if the Baylor offense will be the same under a new coach. While the competition was not very exciting, the Bears posted 48 points in the first half, scoring on almost every possession. QB Seth Russell is back and healthy, and threw for four TD passes on just 20 attempts. RB Shock Linwood gained 97 yards and didn't carry the ball even 10 times. The Baylor offense is alive and well. SMU was once a football force until suffering the death penalty that saw them play no football for two full seasons, after going 60-19 SU in the seven seasons prior. The Mustangs have had just four winning seasons in the 28 seasons since the death penalty, and have had just three wins in the last two campaigns. They opened with a home win against North Texas, but the Mean Green was 1-11 last year, so I wouldn't get very excited about that. North Texas was out-scored by 31 points per game on the road last season, and SMU struggled, winning by just 13. They were actually out-scored in the final three quarters despite a +2 in turnover margin for the game...uh oh. Needless to say these teams are a lot more distant than even the chalky number posted for this one. The Bears have made a living as a home chalk from -16 to -38 where they are 22-9 ATS, covering by nearly seven points per game. Make the play on Baylor.

Oddsmakers made this total too high, thinking back to last year's 50-48 Baylor win in the opener against TCU. Well dynamic QB Robert Griffin III is gone, off to the NFL. The Baylor offense is rebuilding around senior QB Nick Florence and won't be as explosive as last season. Baylor's defense was terrible on the road and in the bowl game last year, but the defense played much better at home (where they were undefeated), pitching one shutout, holding Iowa State to 26 and Texas to 24. SMU comes to town with a retooling offense of its own led by new QB Garrett Gilbert, a transfer from Texas. Gilbert played only a little last season and threw two picks and one TD while completing less than 56% of his passes. He had season-ending shoulder injury (torn labrum) after week 2 with the Longhorns and transferred. Despite throwing all the time with Coach June Jones, SMU is on a 4-0 run UNDER the total. In addition, the UNDER is 4-0 in the Mustangs last four road games and 9-2 UNDER the total in their last 11 games on Field Turf. Play the UNDER.