Baylor Bears vs Iowa State Cyclones Point Spread Picks

Baylor has a fine quarterback in Sawyer Robertson (6 TDs, 2 INTs). They covered as a double-digit underdog in a 23-12 loss at Utah and come off a close 34-28 loss to No. 22 BYU as Robertson threw for 324 yards and three TDs. Baylor has covered four of its last six, including a 34-31 bowl win over West Virginia as a +13 underdog. Iowa State prefers ball control, winning all four games despite scoring 21, 20, and 20 points in three of them. Iowa State is 1-5 SU/ATS in the last six meetings against Baylor. Play Baylor. 

Iowa State prefers a ball control offense but the Baylor run defense has been great, ranked 13th in the nation in rushing yards allowed. Even in a double-overtime loss to BYU, the Bears allowed just 83 yards rushing, 2.5 yards per carry. Baylor is 66-45 UNDER the total as an underdog, plus 19-7 UNDER versus winning teams. Iowa State has been even better, third in the nation in rush yards allowed (41 per game) and seventh in points surrendered (8.5 ppg). They had a 10-7 win over rival Iowa of the Big 10 making coach Matt Campbell 45-31 UNDER the total, including 26-13 UNDER in September games. Iowa State is also 24-13 UNDER versus winning teams and this shapes up as a fierce defensive duel. Take Baylor/Iowa State UNDER the total.

This is the second straight road game for Iowa State. It's a ball-control offense that keeps games close, with a 16-10 win over Northern Iowa and a 27-17 loss to Iowa. Of their 11 regular-season games last season, six were decided by seven points or less. QB Brock Purdy hasn't had a great start with three TDs and three interceptions. The Cyclones are 18-38-3 ATS after getting less than 100 yards rushing in their last game, plus 5-12-1 ATS following a victory of 20+ points. They're favored, but they head to Waco to face unbeaten Baylor. The Bears have two outstanding playmakers in the backfield in RBs Trestan Ebner (317 yards, 7.5 yards per carry, and 64 receiving yards) and Abram Smith (122 yards rushing per game, 7.8 yards per carry). Baylor has the top rushing offense in the Big 12 (321.3 yards per contest), and they have covered six of eight against Iowa State. Also, college football home teams in conference action are 40-14 ATS after two straight covers as a double-digit favorite. Play Baylor.