Ball State Cardinals vs Western Michigan Broncos Point Spread Picks

I think this is going to be a long season for Ball St. The Cardinals are 2-3 to start the season, but one of the wins was by just eight points vs. an FCS team. They have allowed 162 total points to their other three opponents at 54 PPG. Western Michigan returned 17 starters this season. Western Michigan has started the season at 1-3, which is right where they should be with losses to Ohio St., Marshall, and Wisconisn. Ball St. has lost seven of their last 10 meetings vs. the Broncos, and just one of their last five at Western Michigan. Ball St. has allowed better than 40 PPG in those last five road games at Western Michigan, and I don't see based on what Ball St. has done this year that the Cardinals are ready to flip the script, although despite the returning starters for the Broncos at 17, the offense has not produced a whole lot. They beat an FCS team where they scored 59 points, and that has significantly skewed their offensive numbers up, as the Broncos have scored no more than 20 points in any of their games vs FBS opponents. The Cardinals have scored a grand total of 41 points in three games vs. FBS opponents, at fewer than 14 points per game, so their contributions appear limited. Make the play on Western Michigan and the UNDER.

Western Michigan had the unenviable task of opening on the road at No. 15 Michigan of the Big 10, a 35-13 loss, but now they can focus on MAC action. Western Michigan went through that a year ago, losing at Michigan in the opener and then won four in a row, including a 28-0 shutout in Week 2 and a Week 3 44-41 win at Pitt as a +14 dog. The offense was No. 12 in the nation in total offense averaging 32.5 points per game, while the defense returns 7 starters to a unit that was second in the nation in third down stops, great at generating pressure and sacks, and No. 1 in the MAC in total defense. Western Michigan is 8-3-1 ATS after a loss and faces a Ball State squad off a losing 2021 campaign and got destroyed at Tennessee last week, 59-10. Junior QB John Paddock made his first college start in the opener and threw 2 picks while the defense was mauled allowing 569 yards. Ball State is on an 11-21 spread run at home, 20-35 ATS after scoring 14 points or fewer, plus 15-29 ATS at home after being outgained by 125 or more total yards in the last contest. Play Western Michigan.

Western Michigan has to head out on the road for the finale in a tough situational spot. Western Michigan's defense has been poor, surrendering 35 points and 409.4 yards per game. That defense let them down the last game, a 53-42 loss to Eastern Michigan at home as a two-TD favorite. Ball State is home riding a four-game winning streak with the MAC West Division title on the line and a spot in the league championship game. Ball State has won two straight as an underdog each time, off a 45-20 victory at Central Michigan. The Cardinals have outstanding offensive balance behind QB Drew Pitt (10 TDs, 5 INTs) and a pair of running backs averaging 4.7 and 5.5 yards per carry. The offense is #18 in the nation in yards (479 pg), #23 in points (34.4 pg). The wagering value is on the high-flying home team to win the game. Back Ball State on the moneyline.

Ball State is a .500 team off a 34-21 loss at home as a favorite. Ball State is on a 10-21 ATS run in MAC play, plus 9-19 ATS after allowing 200+ yards rushing in their previous game. And the Ball State defense has only generated 11 total sacks, ranking #111 in the nation. Western Michigan is a perfect 5-0 at home, on a 6-0 spread run at home. Western Michigan's offense is #29 in the nation at 461.8 yards per game, with perfect balance averaging over 200 yards rushing and passing. At home, the Broncos are ripping opponents by a 44.6 to 12.8 average. Western Michigan has covered four of the last five meetings, including a 55-3 blowout when they last met on this field. Lay the points and play on Western Michigan.