Ball State Cardinals vs Toledo Rockets Point Spread Picks

The Toledo Rockets are the best team in the MAC Conference, but they are currently tied for third place. This team is good on both sides of the ball. The issue for this team has been playing on the road. Toledo is an ugly 1-4 on the road, but has been a completely different team at home, where they are 5-0. Toledo has outscored their five home opponents 237-37. Ball St. comes into this game at 4-6 and needs to win their final two games to become bowl eligible. The Cardinals are heavy dogs here and will be a dog in their finale vs. Miami, O. This looks like a big blowout to me. Make the play on Toledo. 

Ball State stayed UNDER again in its 27-20 win over Kent State last week and the Cardinals now are 6-1 UNDER their past seven games, including the last two by an average of 18 points. Eight of the past 10 meetings have gone UNDER, including Toledo's 22-12 victory last year and the game stayed UNDER by 22 points. Toledo also went UNDER when it defeated Eastern Michigan 27-24 and the Eagles were held to seven points in the second half and only 99 passing yards for the whole game. Ball State has allowed only 19.2 points per game its last four and the Cardinals are scoring 24.8 points per contest this season. Ball State is 7-0 UNDER its past seven November games and they are 20-8 UNDER their past 28 overall. The Rockets are 6-2 UNDER overall following an ATS loss and the past five meetings at Toledo have gone UNDER. Take this game to stay UNDER the total.

The MAC opener. Despite a losing record, Toledo has been impressive, almost upsetting No. 8 Notre Dame on the road losing 32-29 as a +16 dog. With 21 returning starters to a team that averaged 35 points in 2020, they have a shot to win the MAC. Toledo was second in the MAC in total offense (494 yards per game), first in passing offense (325.8 passing yards per contest). The defense is also loaded with depth and experience, holding Notre Dame to 3.4 yards per rush while forcing 3 turnovers. Toledo is 14-5 ATS as a road favorite, 18-7-1 ATS after allowing fewer than 170 yards passing in their last game. Ball State also has a losing record after getting blasted at Penn State (44-13) and Wyoming (45-12). QBs John Paddock and Drew Pitt have 2 TDs, 4 picks. Ball State is on a 9-18 ATS run at home, plus 13-27 ATS at home after getting outgained by 125+ total yards in the last game. And the road team is 10-3 ATS when these rivals clash. Play Toledo.