Ball State Cardinals vs North Texas Mean Green Point Spread Picks

The Ball State Cardinals put themselves on the map last season winning 12 games and a national ranking. The Cards lost a lot on offense and have just four starters returning. But, that includes RB MiQuale Lewis who ran for 1,736 yards last year and 22 TDs, and WR Briggs Orsbon who caught 68 balls a year ago. The Cardinals will be breaking in a new QB, so I'd look for the offense to be dominated by Lewis running a lot here, especially against a poor North Texas defense. The strength of the Cardinals may be on the defensive front line as they have all four starters from a good unit coming back. North Texas has gone just 3-21 over their last three years and went 1-11 a year ago. In the early going last season, they were especially bad, losing each of their first five games by 30 points or more. Even with a lot of returnees, there is just such a mountain to climb here. Despite the losses, Ball State is still light years ahead of this North Texas team and I like them to run away with this one. I also like the UNDER here. The Mean Green will also be breaking in a new QB in this one, so both teams could be pounding the ball and passing short. With two brand new QB's I expect a conservative approach in the opener, and a lot of running. I have a system that features early-season games with inexperienced QBs that has gone UNDER to the tune of 33-16 the past five years. I like this one to come in under 60 points.