Ball State Cardinals vs Miami Ohio RedHawks Point Spread Picks

Ball State is not good. But the Cardinals have a knack for covering the spread, often because they are undervalued. That's the case here. The Cardinals have covered 61% of their last 18 games. Miami of Ohio's offense can't be counted on after starting quarterback Dequan Finn quit the team two games ago. Finn had thrown for 1,451 yards and rushed for another 395 yards, while accounting for 13 touchdowns. The RedHawks were impressive in a 37-20 road win against Buffalo last week. However, they lost, 24-3, at home to Toledo in the first game Finn missed. Miami of Ohio averages 24.4 points a game, which ranks 104th. The RedHawks are 115th in yards per game and 111th in passing yards. It is asking a lot for such a mediocre offense to cover this large a point spread. Ball State did give up 38 points to Toledo in its last game. The Cardinals, though, had allowed an average of 19.3 points per game over their previous three games, against Eastern Michigan, Kent State, and Northern Illinois. Take Ball State. 

Miami has won three in a row and easily covered the spread in all of them, including 46-7 over Central Michigan last week as a 10.5-point favorite. Brett Gabbert threw for 165 yards and a TD and Javon Tracy caught five passes for 118 yards although he is out for the season. Keyon Mozee ran 15 times for 120 yards for the Redhawks, who held the Chippewas to 62 passing yards. Ball State has lost five of seven although the Cardinals upset Northern Illinois 25-23 on Oct. 26. Kadin Semonza had 211 passing yards with two TDs for the Cardinals. Miami is 14-6 ATS its past 20 games, including 7-3 ATS its past 10 road contests. Ball State has allowed an astounding 40.4 points per game this season, including a 62-0 loss to the Miami Hurricanes and a 63-7 defeat against James Madison. Take Miami Ohio.

Miami of Ohio went 10-6 in the regular season the last two years. They got off to a poor start in 2021 because of a brutal September schedule, including a trip to the Big 10, a 31-26 loss at Minnesota as a +18 dog, and also having to face undefeated Cincinnati. However, they've turned things around since with a 28-17 win and cover over Central Michigan, a one-point loss to Eastern Michigan, and a 34-21 win over Akron. Miami Ohio is 35-20 ATS as an underdog, 17-7 ATS in MAC games, plus 12-3 ATS after allowing 280+ yards passing in their last game. The RedHawks are also 27-10 straight up against MAC schools, the best record in the conference during that span. Ball State is favored here, but the ground game averages just 3.5 yards per rush while the defense is #84 in the country in points allowed (29.7) and #86 versus the run (163 yards allowed per contest). Ball State is on a 10-19 spread run at home and 14-28 ATS at home against losing teams. Play Miami Ohio.