Ball State Cardinals vs Kent State Golden Flashes Point Spread Picks

I had Kent State's total UNDER last week against Ohio State and got run out of the building watching the Golden Flashes defense give up 59 points in a game over by halftime. That defense has allowed more than 43 points a game this season, and Ball State's defense isn't much better, giving up at least 41 points in two of its three games, including a 56-point outburst in its opener. Both offenses have already shown they can move the ball against anybody; Ball State scored 41 in a win two weeks ago, and Kent State put up 36 in its only win of the year. Between these two teams' combined six games this season, every single one has finished well clear of today's total, most by double digits, and nothing about either roster suggests that changes once they line up across from each other. This is about as clear a signal as the board gives all week: two defenses that can't get a stop against anybody, sharing the same field. Go with the OVER here.

Thanks to Mark Carney, Kent State is no longer the laughing stock of the Mid-American Conference. The Golden Flashes went 1-23 and had zero wins against FBS opponents the past two years coming into this season. However, under Carney, Kent State is 3-5 overall and 2-2 in the MAC. That is the same record Ball State has. Morale has picked up at Kent State, not only with improvements on the field, but also with the school removing the interim tag and naming the popular Carney as the permanent head coach. This is the Golden Flashes' first game since that announcement. Kent State's defense doesn't have a high bar to clear in this situation. Ball State averages only 16.4 points per game. The Cardinals are third from the bottom in yards per game and passing yards per game. Ball State QB Kiael Kelly has as many interceptions as touchdown passes with three. Kelly has been sacked 28 times,  more than any quarterback in the conference. There's a reason why the Cardinals haven't been a favorite up to this point against an FBS opponent. That reason being they aren't any good. Take Kent State.

Ball State is struggling and has no balance with a running game that averages just 2.9 yards per carry. This puts too much pressure on QB Kadin Semonza (11 TDs, 7 INTs) to carry the load, and he's been sacked 16 times in five games. Kent State's offense is averaging just 14.8 points per game. The ground game is awful averaging a ridiculous 1.8 yards per carry with leading rusher Ky Thomas (139 yards, 3.0 ypc). They're winless, even losing to St. Francis, 23-17, as a 17-point favorite. Ball State won last year's meeting, 34-3, in a game that sailed UNDER, and this total is too high. Take Ball State/Kent State UNDER the total. 

Ball State has a losing road record and comes off a 20-16 home loss to Eastern Michigan as a favorite. Over the last two seasons, QB John Paddock has 14 TDs, 10 picks. The offense has averaged 19.3 points in the last three games. Ball State is on a 4-10 ATS run, 5-13 ATS against losing teams, and 14-24 ATS after failing to cover. Kent State has won 12 in a row at home and has a very strong balance on offense. QB Collin Schlee (8 TDs, 4 INTs) has missed the last two games but backup QB Devin Kargman (3 TDs, 2 INTs) has played well while RB Marquez Cooper (845 yards, 4.6 ypc) provides the balance. After opening the season at Washington and Oklahoma, Kent State's offense has averaged 34 points. Kent State won the last meeting versus Ball State scoring 41 points and the home team has covered six of the last seven meetings. Play Kent State.