Auburn Tigers vs Vanderbilt Commodores Point Spread Picks

No team in the country has been as surprising as Vanderbilt. Vanderbilt is 5-3 and owns wins vs. Virginia Tech, Alabama, and Kentucky, and just a three-point loss at Texas. This team has been able to stand toe-to-toe with anyone. This team also lost to Georgia St. and beat Ball St. by just 10 at home. This looks like a trap game for Vandy after playing at such a high level. After this game with Auburn, they have dates with SC, LSU, and Tennessee. This is an easy look-ahead spot. Auburn has a very good defense as the Tigers are allowing just 17.3 PPG. Vandy averaged 39.8 PPG in their first five, but in their last three they have averaged 22.5 PPG. I don't think Vandy is going to bring their "A" game as they have failed to do against the non-elite teams on their schedule. Make the play on Auburn.

Auburn is 4-4 with a shot at a bowl after a 27-13 win over Mississippi State. They'll probably get there with games against Vanderbilt and New Mexico State coming up. Vanderbilt is 0-5 in the SEC with no shot at a bowl, on a 4-13 SU/ATS slide. QB A.J. Swann (elbow) has missed the last four games and is questionable. Two backup quarterbacks aren't getting any help from a running game that averages 3.4 yards per rush. Vanderbilt's defense ranks 124th in points given up (36.9 per game), 120th in total yards (456.6 yards per game allowed), and 127th on third down (50.91%). Vandy is on a 2-9 spread run at home, 38-59 ATS at home off an SEC loss, and 20-38 ATS at home after a loss by 17 points or more. Play Auburn. 

Vanderbilt is all about playing tough defense because...well, they have no offense. Two Commodores QBs have combined for four TDs and four picks (Jay Cutler, where are you?). Vandy is #124 in the nation in total yards on offense, #118 in scoring (20.8 points per game). But at least the defense is keeping them in games at 4-4 with a shot at a Bowl. They've allowed 13, 20, 16 and 17 points the last four contests, even nipping Georgia (17-16) as a +14 point dog. Vanderbilt is #26 in the nation in points allowed (21.4 ppg), on an 18-6-2 run UNDER the total. The Commodores are also 53-23-1 UNDER in SEC play. And speaking of defense, Auburn has been sensational, allowing 16 points per contest, good for eighth in the country, and #31 in total yards allowed. Auburn is 10-4-1 UNDER the total at home as well as 7-3 UNDER in conference play and this shapes up as a battle of field goals. Take this one to finish UNDER.

This will be a tough spot physically, mentally, and emotionally for Vandy. This is an improved team but they laid it all on the line last week vs. Florida where they were barely outgained by in a 14-point loss. Vandy had closed to within 7 points with two and a half to go, but a 70-yard run put an end to any hopes of getting the game even. They had 23 first downs to the Gators’ 15, and they spent it all last week. Auburn has fallen far from the Cam Newton team, as they are just 1-5 coming into this one. That is a bit misleading because this team lost at LSU by just 2, and lost by just 7 to a quality Clemson team. They have the talent but they just haven't gotten it consistently enough to win. The Tigers have a good chance of catching Vandy in a bad spot here. Auburn has  bowed their backs after a horrible defensive game, going 7-2 ATS in their last nine after allowing 40+ points. The Commodores get up for the big games, but their last 27 at home vs. a team with a losing road record shows 7-19-1 ATS. This is a flat spot for Vanderbilt. Take the Tigers.