CITRUS BOWL - Northwestern steps up to face the SEC with a weak offense. They are one-dimensional on offense (all running) averaging just 23.4 points as QB Peyton Ramsey has nine TDs and eight picks. He's thrown two picks in each of their losses, to Ohio State and Michigan State, and both defeats were in the final three games of the season. They face an Auburn squad that is 9-0 ATS when their defense forces two turnovers. Auburn fired head coach Gus Malzahn but got a good hire in former Boise State head coach Bryan Harsin. And continuity won't be broken as defensive coordinator Kevin Steele has stepped into the interim head-coaching role for the bowl game. They have far better offensive balance averaging 172.7 yards rushing and 212.3 passing, led by star freshman RB Tank Bigsby (834 yards, 6.0 yards per carry), and a solid defense that allowed 23.7 points. Northwestern is 18-29 ATS off of two or more straight UNDERS, so back the SEC over the Big 10. Play Auburn.
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Lines & Odds
Public Consensus
Who was the public on? 61% of the public bets were on Northwestern Wildcats on the -4 ATS. 69% of the public money was on Northwestern Wildcats to win on the moneyline. And, 54% of the bets were on the game to go OVER the total.
Computer Predictions
My computer prediction for this game was that Auburn would win by a score of 21.9 to 21.2, Auburn winning on the spread and the game going UNDER the total.
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CFB
Auburn vs. Northwestern
1:00 PM Eastern
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Lines & Odds
Public Consensus
Who was the public on? 55% of the public bets were on Northwestern Wildcats on the +9 ATS. 59% of the public money was on Northwestern Wildcats to win on the moneyline. And, 51% of the bets were on the game to go UNDER the total.
Computer Predictions
My computer prediction for this game was that Auburn would win by a score of 34.7 to 20.5 with Auburn winning on the moneyline and on the spread and the game going OVER the total.
Premium Picks
CFB
Northwestern at Auburn
11:00 AM Eastern
Outback Bowl - Raymond James Stadium - Tampa, FL. Northwestern closed the season strong by winning two of their last three games with two of those wins coming against nationally ranked teams. The Wildcats started slow at 2-2, but finished strong going 6-2 in their final eight game, improving steadily as the season progressed. The season got off to a roaring start for Auburn as they logged wins in each of their first five games, but the wheels fell off from there. They finished an un-Bowl-like 1-5 down the stretch against FBS teams, and were out-scored by 8 points per game in the process. A team that scored 41.4 ppg in their first five games finished the last six scoring 24 or less in five of them! The defense allowed at least 20 points in all of their last 11 games including 31 to a non-FBS team in Furman. On the road this season, the Tigers defense has been bad. They are 1-3 in road games, allowing 32 points per game. It will be difficult for a team that had much bigger Bowl aspirations, starting off 5-0 but having since fallen off dramatically on both sides of the ball, to cover a big number vs. an improving team that has knocked off top 25 teams. Northwestern is playing with confidence and is excited to be here, with the prospects of their first Bowl win since 1948 hanging in the balance.
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