Army Black Knights vs Duke Blue Devils Point Spread Picks

Army loves to run the football, tops in the nation with 362.3 yards per game in 2017. That chews up yards and the clock, but there is work to do in Week 1 as four starters from the offensive line graduated. The Black Knights will lean on a terrific defense that ranked #28 in the nation in points allowed (20.9 points per game). The Black Knights also return five of their top seven tacklers. Army is on a 7-3 run UNDER the total on the road, as well as 26-10-1 UNDER on natural grass. They face a Duke offense that is also thin on offensive line experience with only two returning starters. They averaged just 19.8 ppg in conference play as problems started on the offensive line and spread through the entire offense, with QB Daniel Jones (14 TDs, 11 INTs, 56.7% completions) making bad decisions while trying to force throws to receivers who couldn't get much separation. At least Duke's defense is loaded, ranked #25 in the nation in points allowed last fall (20.8 ppg). Three returning starters are back on the D-line with a potential All-American at linebacker in junior Joe Giles-Harris. Duke is on a 9-2 run UNDER the total and this shapes up as a defensive duel. Play the UNDER.

Army suffered a tough 23-20 loss their last time out vs. a bad Buffalo team. They dominated the stats, but didn't get the job done. The Black Knights are still 3-1 and certainly look like a much better team than what we have seen out of West Point in well over a decade. They have out-gained every opponent they have faced by 180 yards per game, and usually limit the number of plays run in a game because they run the triple option, and the clock is moving with almost every play. They have averaged 22 plays per game on the season. Duke has been outgained in three of their four games, and have a big huge win over Notre Dame, so many will question the line here. Army teams that are better than .500 and at least five weeks into the season, are 8-3 ATS when facing a power conference team. Duke also beat Army 44-3 at West Point last year, so many will question if things have changed that much. QB Daniel Jones has been quite erratic for Duke with six TDs to eight INTs on the season, and leading RB Jela Duncan, the only Duke runner at four yards per carry or better, is questionable. Army fits a situation that is 27-4 ATS for this one as well. The better team is getting points, so make the play on Army on the moneyline.

Teams from the military academies have a slight tendency to the UNDER at 52.5% the last nine years. One of the reasons is the fact that they all run the triple option, which chews clock, and subsequently their games average a lot fewer plays than games between conventional offenses. Duke has been a very strong defensive team this season, and I think they will account for themselves very well vs. Army's option attack. On the season the Blue Devils have yielded very little, allowing just 53 points in their five games at 10.6 points per game, and no team has gotten to 20 points vs. them. Army has been much better over the years at defending at home, which has led to an 11-1 mark to the UNDER in their last 12 here vs. a team with a winning road record. Duke is historically an UNDER team on the road where they own a 41-20-1 UNDER mark in their last 62. This one stays UNDER.

The Blue Devils won three games in the ACC a year ago, and no longer look to be the doormat in the ACC, which was a given in years gone by. They gave Wake Forest fits scoring 48 points, but the defense let them down. They now take on a challenging, but beatable opponent in Army. Duke victimized Army a year ago in much the same way many teams have as two interceptions returned for TDs in 16 seconds sealed the Black Knight's fate. The option is a high-risk offense, and Army often pays the price. Although Duke doesn't defend well, their issue is a bad pass defense and that's not something Army can take advantage of. The Blue Devils will have an edge here playing a one-dimensional team that runs 85% of the time. Safeties can and will be cheating up, and Army simply doesn't have the air attack to counter. Duke is averaging 34 points per game and that includes the 13 they got vs. Alabama. Army is just 28-66 ATS their last 94 games when allowing an opponent to get to 28. They are also 14-28 ATS in thier last 42 games as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points. I like Duke in this one.