Army Black Knights vs Buffalo Bulls Point Spread Picks

Buffalo was 2-10 last year and gave up an average of 32 points per game. Its defense was last in the Mid-American Conference and third last in the country in run defense. The fact that eight defensive starters return from that squad probably is not good news. The Bulls lost 17-7 to Minnesota, but the Golden Gophers ran up 408 yards of offense, including 169 on the ground. Buffalo Quarterback Tyree Jackson threw for 211 yards on 22-of-42 attempts with one touchdown and an interception. Army returns eight starters on offense and routed Fordham 64-6 last week. The Black Knights' option offense racked up 513 yards on 10.9 yards per carry and they only attempted two passes and neither was completed. Army has gone OVER 14 of its last 19 games against MAC teams and from the looks of Buffalo's run defense against Minnesota, the Knights could have a field day. Army averaged 30 points per game in 2016 and scored at least 60 points three times. The posted total is lower due to Buffalo's deceiving score last week, so take this matchup to soar OVER.

The Black Knights have their best team in 20 years, and have opened at 3-0. Many will look at their road woes, which were ugly until recently, and find a way to play against them. Army was 0-20 SU on the road, and 1-19 ATS. They have since been 3-4 SU on the road, and 6-1 ATS. They have played a decent schedule, one that is on or above their level, and have out-gained Temple, UTEP, and Rice by 1358-809. The Black Knights were 1-24 SU on the road, with the lone win against long term worst FBS team in Eastern Michigan. My, how things have changed! They have five players who have rushed for 120 yards or more on the season, led by Andy Davidson 62-334, only a sophomore. They have two competent QBs to run the option. The offense ranks #46 in the country, and the defense #17. Buffalo has had just two winning years in their FBS history, and this will not be the third. They lost to Albany at home, a team they beat last year 51-14, and Nevada on the road 38-14, a team they lost by just three to a year ago. Their two QBs have gone 24-57, completing just 42.1%, against poor competition. Nevada ran all over them in Week 3, and Army will do the same. Buffalo's lack of a passing game, makes them an even worse team, playing from behind. Teams that allowed 5.5 yards a carry in their previous game, playing as a home dog against a team that out-rushed their last three opponents by 100 yards or more are 5-23 ATS. If you extend that to facing an opponent that out-rushed their last three opponents by 150 yards  or more it becomes 0-10 ATS, failing to cover by 11.50 points per game. Home dogs that allowed 37 points or more in their previous game, and facing an opponent that led by 14 points or more at the half in their last two games and are .500 or less, are 10-30 ATS. Army has started 3-0 just two times in the last 36 years, and when they did they went to 4-0, winning by 34.5 ppg. This is a different Army team, so make the play on Army.

Buffalo had a successful year last season, and despite a bad bowl loss the Bulls finished at 8-5. Buffalo may be OK on offense, but the real challenge is replacing, and filling a lot of holes on the defensive end. That will be problematic vs. an Army team that will snap the ball out of the triple option on every down, and it takes maximum discipline to stop it. So with the Bulls' defense left with very few veterans, they could have a lot of problems defending it. Army has a lot of experience returning. And the Black Knights have hopes of getting to six wins this season. Opening at home is going to be huge, and this is a game they need to win as they take to the road for their next three. Looking down the barrel of an 0-15 SU record in their last 15 on the road, this game is a must-win and a very winnable one at that. Catching this Buffalo team early in the season while they try to plug holes on the defensive end will prove decisive for the Black Knights. Make the play on Army.