Arkansas State Red Wolves vs Troy Trojans

Two of the best teams in the Sun Belt West square off. Arkansas State is 62-41 UNDER the total as an underdog, 39-19 UNDER versus winning teams, and 24-11 UNDER away from home after a win by 17+ points. Troy's defense is leading the way allowing an average of 15.6 points in the last three games. The offense leans on RB Kimani Vidal (590 yards, 5.7 ypc) and a strong ground attack chews up yards and the clock. And college football conference games involving two teams with winning percentages between 51% to 60% are 92-44 UNDER the total. Play Arkansas State/Troy UNDER the total.

Troy is 9-2 and 8-3 ATS and the Trojans have won eight in a row after beating UL Monroe 34-16 with Kimani Vidal piling up 242 yards rushing on 8.3 yards per carry with two touchdowns. Quarterback Gunnar Watson didn't have to do much with that kind of production from Vidal and he threw only 17 times and completed 10 for 78 yards for the Trojans, who held the Warhawks to 83 rushing yards. Troy has allowed an average of only 13.3 points during the winning streak and Arkansas State has scored an average of just 18 points per game their past six games. The Red Wolves are 2-4 ATS in that span and they lost 16-13 to Texas State last week while gaining only 54 yards on the ground on 23 carries. Arkansas State is 3-8 this season and Troy won the last meeting in 2020 by a 38-10 score. The Trojans have covered five straight road games and Arkansas State is 2-5 ATS its past seven home contests. Play Troy.

Troy got run over by No. 18 ranked BYU but has been terrific in all the other games, winning three times while dropping a close one to Georgia State (36-34). The offense has tallied 47, 37, 31, and 34 points in four of their five games. They will be able to move the ball and score on an Arkansas State defense that is one of the worst in the nation allowing 488.3 yards (11th-worst), 197 yards rushing, and 40.7 points (12th worst) per game. Arkansas State has backup sophomore QB Layne Hatcher stepping in for injured QB Logan Bonner. The wagering value is on Troy to win the game. Take Troy on the moneyline.

Running the pigskin chews up yards and the clock and Arkansas State has a pair of running backs averaging over five yards per carry. Arkansas State is on a 7-2 run UNDER the total and is 16-4-1 UNDER when following a victory. They are also 20-8 UNDER in September games, as well as 43-17-2 UNDER against winning teams. They head to Sun Belt rival Troy, a team that also has a pair of backs averaging over 5.3 yards per carry. Troy is 8-2 UNDER the total after getting 200+ yards rushing in their previous game, plus 12-5 UNDER after allowing fewer than 20 points in their previous game. Take the UNDER.