Arkansas State Red Wolves vs Toledo Rockets Point Spread Picks

The linemakers tend to post an inflated total for these two teams early on as they are a combined 8-2 UNDER in the month of September. Also, Toledo went UNDER four of its last five games last season. Arkansas State's defense led the nation with 26 interceptions and was second with a plus-34 turnover margin. The Red Wolves return seven defensive starters from a squad that allowed 28.8 points per game even though that included a 55-6 loss at USC.  The Red Wolves will have a new quarterback, probably Chad Voytik, and they lost Michael Gordon, who rushed for more than 1,000 yards and also top receivers J.D. McKissic and Tres Houston. Toledo won last year's matchup 37-7 as it held the Red Wolves to just 11 first downs and 2-for-13 on third down conversions. Arkansas State had a negative average per rush and a total of 223 passing yards. Gordon was held to 22 yards on seven carries. The posted total closed at 58 1/2, which is about seven points lower than this year's matchup. Logan Woodside, who missed all of last season with an ankle injury, will be the starting quarterback for Toledo. Two-time all Mid-American Conference selection, defensive tackle Treyvon Hester, returns for the Rockets. Look for another early-season UNDER from these two teams. Play Toledo and Arkansas State to stay UNDER the total.

Arkansas State is making their fourth straight appearance in this Alabama-based Bowl, but it's the first with the same coach who was in charge during the regular season - another big plus. Arkansas State ranked #20 in the FBS with 36.1 points per game and #24 with 229.0 rushing yards per contest behind junior QB Fredi Knighten (19 TDs, 7 INTs) and RB Mike Gordon (1,064 yards). Gordon averages 7.1 per carry while QB Knighton has 775 yards rushing in this balanced and potent attack. Arkansas State is 12-3-1 ATS against a team with a winning record. They are also 3-1-1 ATS against the MAC. Toledo heads south for this Bowl with a weak defense (29.3 ppg allowed) and on a 3-7-1 spread run. The Rockets are 0-3-1 ATS in at neutral sites and 1-3-1 ATS in their last five Bowl games. Arkansas State beat a MAC school in this Bowl one year ago and shouldn't be the dog here. Grab the points on Arkansas State.