Arkansas Razorbacks vs Troy Trojans Point Spread Picks

The Razorbacks are 28-0 vs. Sun Belt opponents. There's no doubt that they will be 29-0 after this one. But, can they win by this large number? I think they cover the number easily. Last week Arkansas won 52-3 with their backup quarterback playing half the game. Tyler Wilson should be back for this one. His offense has put up nearly 1,100 yards in two games and there's little hope for Troy to slow that down. In a 43-19 beatdown at the hands of Clemson, the Trojans allowed 6.8 yards per play. The Razorbacks are 11-3 ATS at home the past three seasons and they are also 30-13 ATS in their last 43 when following a game in which they scored 42+ points. Bobby Petrino gets it done as home chalk. His teams are 26-9 ATS in that role, including 14-5 here at Arkansas. Lay the big number here and side with the Razorbacks.

I have to believe that this total has been posted so high because the Razorbacks offense hung 63 on Eastern Michigan. That makes the offense vs. a Sun Belt foe look appealing for another big afternoon. But the real story is for Arkansas is the improvements that they have made defensively. After opening allowing 52 to Georgia and 35 to Alabama, they have allowed just 23 points per game. While the Troy offense is piling up points in the offensive-happy Sun Belt Conference, stepping out has not produced much. They have played against UAB, Florida and Bowling Green, having averaged just 15.7 ppg compared to their lofty Sun Belt status of 39.2 ppg. They also have struggled to score when playing on grass. Sure, in their six games on turf, they have put up big numbers. But in three grass games, this offense is averaging just 16.7 ppg! The Razorbacks, despite the offensive headlines, have played 5-2 to the UNDER in their last seven as the defense has improved. They are also 5-1 to the UNDER against teams with winning records. This one looks to high, so UNDER gets the call.