Arkansas Razorbacks vs Mississippi State Bulldogs Point Spread Picks

Arkansas has won three of five and is 5-2 ATS on the season. They won at Auburn, 24-14, as a +5.5 underdog and lost 21-17 at No. 24 Texas A&M in their last road contest. Their other loss was to No. 16 Oklahoma State in double overtime, and they've covered five in a row away from home. The offense has a powerful back in RB Ja'Quinden Jackson (592 yards, 5.7 ypc). Mississippi State is winless in the SEC with the conference's worst defense. They've lost five in a row after losing at home to Texas A&M last week, 34-24. The defense is ranked 126th in the country in yards given up (475.3 per game) and 117th versus the run surrendering 203.5 yards rushing per contest. Mississippi State is on a 5-11-1 spread run. Play Arkansas. 

Coach Mile Leach returned 17 starters this season, and is at it again with the passing game. Mississippi St. is averaging 347 passing yards per game and is off to a 4-1 start. While that seems impressive it has been rather ordinary. The Bulldogs have faced opponents allowing 7.1 yards per passing attempt and Mississippi St. is averaging 7.2, so they have actually been right on average, it is the volume generating the yards, not the success. It is actually an above-average defense carrying the weight. Arkansas has been impressive offensively generating 377 yards vs Alabama, 415 vs Texas A&M, and 447 vs Cincinnati. Arkansas is generating 8.6 yards per passing attempt vs opponents allowing 7.3. I think Arkansas has the offense to make a game out of this and I will take the points and make the play on Arkansas.

Arkansas had a break from SEC play and pounded Arkansas-Pine Bluff, 45-3, while racking up 291 yards on the ground, and K.J. Jefferson threw 4 touchdown passes. The Razorbacks needed to regroup after three straight losses following a 4-0 start to the season. Mississippi State has split its last six games and comes off a 31-17 win over Kentucky. Arkansas upset the Bulldogs, 21-14, as a 16.5-point underdog last year, and the Razorbacks are 8-2 ATS after a bye week (14-6 ATS their past 20 games overall). Mississippi State is just 4-9 ATS in its last 13 games after an ATS win. Arkansas is #4 in the country in rushing yards with 249.6 per game and three players gaining more than 400 yards and 5 yards per carry. Jefferson has rushed for 493 yards on 5.2 yards per carry. Take Arkansas to cover for a Max Play.