Arizona Wildcats vs New Mexico Lobos

NEW MEXICO BOWL: The New Mexico Bowl has been around since 2006, and Arizona represents the third PAC-12 team to be invited. The first two did not fare all that well with Arizona beating Nevada by one point, and Washington State losing to Colorado State by three. This is a home game for New Mexico, and home teams have a long history of playing well in  Bowl games. It was a tough season for the Wildcats who started 5-2, but took until their 11th game to get that sixth win to become Bowl eligible. They finished a disappointing 6-6, and just two of their wins vs. FBS teams were by 10 or more points. Going all the way back to 1980, Arizona is just the second Bowl team to open as a 10-point favorite and have a season scoring margin of less than two points per game. The 15 teams that have had a scoring margins of less than two points, and have been favored by 6.5 points or more are just 5-10 ATS in a Bowl game. This game is clearly the motivated (New Mexico) vs. the unmotivated (Arizona). The Lobos have not been to a Bowl game since 2007, where they shutout Nevada 23-0. This is a team that has only reached eight wins four times since 1980, so this is a big deal for them. PAC-12 teams own a 13-23 ATS mark in Bowl games vs. a team that is not from a power-five conference since 1980, and they are 9-19-1 as a favorite of -8 or more in such games. The PAC-12 is also 3-14-1 ATS in a Bowl game vs. a team with fewer than eight wins, including 1-9-1 ATS if the game occurs before December 30th (in other words, a minor Bowl for them). Finally, teams with more rest than their opponent and playing as a favorite, and have a lower winning percentage on the season than their opponent, struggle in Bowl Games as they are a woeful 27-54-1 ATS. (17-42 ATS from -3 and up). Rich Rodriguez coached teams are just 17-26 straight-up following a conference loss. Since he arrived in Arizona, the Cats are 1-7 straight-up after scoring 37+ in back-to-back games. Take New Nexico to win this one outright.

New Mexico is now 9-5 ATS dating back to last year. After starting slowly vs. UTEP in week one, their offense came alive last week, posting 44 against New Mexico State. New Mexico held down the mighty New Mexico State offense last week. Yes, NMST scored 34 but this is a team that is capable of double-that. New Mexico's HC Rocky Long is known for defense and his team returned 10 starters this season. Arizona won a meaningless non-lined game last week vs. Northern Arizona. They allowed lowly N. Arizona 24 points. In week one they were hammered 20-7 by BYU. Will it be another dissapointing season under Mike Stoops? Arizona is the better team but New Mexico can hang with them. Under Long, the Lobos are 18-9 ATS as a dog of 3.5 to 10 points. Arizona is 8-19 ATS in their last 27 as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points. Overall they are just 14-33 in their last 47 as a home favorite. We like a good New Mexico team getting a ton of points.