App State Mountaineers vs Toledo Rockets Point Spread Picks

DOLLAR GENERAL BOWL - A pair of conference champs meet in a rematch of a Bowl from one year ago. The Toledo Rockets and the Appalachian State Mountaineers played in the Camellia Bowl in Alabama last year and Appalachian State collected a 31-28 victory. Appalachian State is back again behind senior QB Taylor Lamb, leading an offense that averages 33.4 points, 223.3 yards passing and 215 rushing. With Lamb at quarterback, the Mountaineers have won 35 of their last 44 games -- the best record of any Group of Five team. In last season's Bowl game he ran for 126 yards and one touchdown against Toledo. They can play defense, too, allowing 30 total points the last three games behind senior linebacker Eric Boggs (97 tackles), senior defensive end Antonious Sims (9.5 sacks) and sophomore defensive back Clifton Duck (10 career interceptions). Appalachian State is 10-1 UNDER the total after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game. Toledo is #56 in the nation defensively in points allowed and #68 against the run allowing 166.4 yards rushing per contest. The Rockets are on a 1-4 ATS run in non-conference games, plus 23-9-1 UNDER against winning teams. The last time they were favored by less than double-digits they lost to Ohio, 38-10. When these teams met last season in the bowl Appalachian State had the edge in rushing 297-127 and was 8-of-19 on third down, while Toledo was just 4-of-12. I like Appalachian State to get the outright upset win, and stay within the points at least. Play App State on the moneyline, ATS and also on the UNDER.

CAMELLIA BOWL - Appalachian Sate has only been in the FBS for three years and has quickly become a force in the Sun Belt Conference. The Mountaineers are 27-10 SU in the three years in the conference. They run out of the triple-option, and control the tempo of games, something that may hamper and frustrate this Toledo team that likes a fast and chaotic pace to the game. Appalachian State's defense improved with every game this season, setting a Sun Belt record in limiting their eight opponents to just a total of 94 points, or 11.8 points per game. They have also been a force on fourth down, allowing just 5-of-23, or 22% conversion rate against them, which is second in the entire FBS. Toledo has an explosive offense, but the defense is very much below average. They will get their points here, but, the Appalachian State defense will get enough stops to control the game and come away with a win. Bowl teams that run the triple-option are very hard to beat because of its uniqueness, and triple-option teams fare well in Bowl games at 29-14 ATS. Back Appalachian State.