App State Mountaineers vs Marshall Thundering Herd

Appalachian St. has had a peculiar start to their season. They went from playing two games in five days, to not playing for 16 days due to the hurricane last week that postponed their game against Liberty. This team has dealt with a natural disaster in the area, so the off the field distractions are very real. Marshall faced Appalachian St. last year during a five-game losing streak and were blown out 31-9, so revenge is on their minds. Marshall QB Stone Earle has been a better running threat than he has been through the air. Marshall is averaging just 18 PPG in their last three games, and App. St. the same, 18 PPG of offense in their last three. Take the UNDER.

This is a big game from the standpoint of the winner becoming one more win from bowl eligibility. The records are even, but Marshall has played the tougher schedule. Appalachian St. has been able to score, but the defense gives it all back as the Mountaineers are allowing better than 30ppg. Appalachian St. has suffered in Conference games over the last two years where they are 1-11 ATS. This team is just 3-16 ATS as a favorite in their last 19, and just 10-9 SU. I think this is a tossup game, and with Appalachian St.'s recent lack of success in conference games, a big opening and plus-value on Marshall to win. I like Marshall on the moneyline.

This should be a hotly contested game between a pair of teams entering at 5-4, each needing just one win for Bowl eligibility. Marshall has struggled offensively all season. Since scoring 31 points in a loss to Bowling Green, the Thundering Herd has averaged just 16.5 PPG and a woeful 12.5 PPG in their last six. The good news is the Herd has allowed just 13.7 PPG in the six games, all six staying UNDER the total. Appalachian St. has now played four of its last five games UNDER the total. I think this total is too high for a pair of teams that are lacking high-scoring games. Games between 5-4 teams are usually played intensely, which typically means the defenses step up. These games have played 65% ATS to the under. Make the play UNDER the total.

Both teams come off big wins with Marshall burying Eastern Kentucky, 59-0, on Sept. 5 and Appalachian State defeating Charlotte, 35-20, last week. Isaiah Green was supposed to be the starter at quarterback for Marshall, but he transferred in June, and Grant Wells has taken over as he threw for 307 yards on 16 of 23 passing with four touchdowns against the Colonels. Brenden Knox was last year's leading rusher, and he gained 85 yards on 18 carries, but he was upstaged by Knowledge McDaniel, who finished with 93 yards on 14 carries for 6.6 yards per carry. They were helped by an offensive line that returns five seniors this year. Appalachian State has a new head coach in Shawn Clark, and he led the team in its 31-17 win over UAB in the New Orleans Bowl. The Mountaineers ran all over Charlotte with 308 rushing yards, including 117 from Marcus Williams, Jr. and 102 from Camerun Peoples. They'll face a tougher defense against Marshall, which is 10-4 ATS its last 14 games as an underdog. This game will go to the wire. Take the points with Marshall.