Alabama Crimson Tide vs Ohio State Buckeyes Point Spread Picks

This is a rematch of the 2015 Sugar Bowl when Ohio State beat the Crimson Tide 42-35. The Buckeyes toyed with a supposedly superior Clemson team, defeating the Tigers 49-28 in the semifinals as Justin Fields threw six touchdown passes while outplaying assumed No. 1 draft pick Trevor Lawrence. Fields went 22 of 28 for 385 yards and the Buckeyes also racked up 254 rushing yards while holding Clemson to only 44 yards on the ground. Fields isn't the only Buckeye that can take over a game, as running back Trey Sermon ran for 193 yards and has now gained 636 yards his last three games. Ohio State has allowed opponents only 22 points per game and has the second-best rushing defense in the country. The Buckeyes averaged 272.6 rushing yards this season and Fields has completed 73.4 percent of his passes for 1,906 yards and 21 TDs with only six interceptions. Alabama's defense is #32 in the country allowing 353.2 yards per game and, of course, the Tide had three players among the top five in Heisman Trophy voting in QB Mac Smith, Najee Harris and the winner DeVonta Smith. Ohio State is 5-0 ATS its last five January games and 19-7 ATS its last 26 games as an underdog. Alabama is 0-4 ATS its last four Bowl Championship games and 1-4 ATS its last five bowl games overall. Also, the Crimson Tide is just 2-7 ATS its last nine January games and 2-5 ATS its last seven neutral-site games. Clearly, Nick Saban is a genius and very difficult to defeat. But, if he has an Achilles heel, it's facing great rushing teams like the Buckeyes. Ohio State racks up 273 rushing yards per game (compared to just 186 per game for Bama). When facing ball-control teams that average 230-plus rushing yards per game, Saban is just 9-19 ATS with Alabama. Play Ohio State.

The Ohio State Buckeyes were certainly a preseason favorite to make it to the playoffs, but their QB went down before the season even started and an early loss to a mediocre Virginia Tech team seemed to doom their chances. They rallied back to run the table, and in unthinkable fashion lost yet another QB. It seemed that their fate was sealed, facing a strong defensive team in Wisconsin, with a powerful running game, was just too much. They came back again in resounding fashion, winning 59-0. So why then is this team such a huge underdog in this game against Alabama? It is the Alabama factor, noone can beat them. The fact is Ohio State, over the last three years, has a better record than Alabama, and have been just as good this season. These teams have both gotten better as the season has gotten long, and Alabama is doing their usual thing on defense. And here we have Ohio State holding the best ground attack in the country in Wisconsin to zero points and 71 rushing yards at 1.9 yards per carry. I think this game plays out closer than expected, and with both teams peaking defensively, a lot less scoring as well. The Buckeyes have been fueled by a top defensive effort as they own a 35-14-2 ATS mark in their last 51 games after allowing less than 275 total yards in their previous game. The Tide has struck out when heading outside the conference where they are 0-7-1 ATS in their last eight. The Buckeyes are 5-1 to the UNDER in their last six on turf. Alabama scored 46 points per game in seven home games and just 26.6 points per game away from home and is not the same explosive offense. Make the play on Ohio State and the UNDER in this one.