Alabama Crimson Tide vs Mississippi State Bulldogs Point Spread Picks

The Alabama Crimson Tide looks as vulnerable as ever but called upon something that has separated this team from most others in the Nick Saban era. That would be the Alabama defense. They dominated Ole Miss at the point of attack and held a good Ole Miss offense to 10 points. The Alabama offense was better last week, and Milroe seems to be settling in, while the defense remains as elite as ever. Alabama fits a strong 86-33 ATS situation, based in part on their two straight wins by 14 or more points. They even fall into a stronger subset that is an incredible 45-9 ATS, and it's hard going against these kinds of numbers. Lay the points with Alabama.

Mississippi State went UNDER by 6.5 points in its 27-17 loss to Kentucky and now the Bulldogs get a bad break as they have to face an Alabama defense that was humiliated last week when the Crimson Tide lost 52-49 to Tennessee in an epic battle. Alabama had allowed an average of only 12.5 points its previous six games and four of them had gone UNDER. You can be sure Nick Saban will make some adjustments to prevent anything close to it happening again. Mississippi State couldn't get anything going on the ground against Kentucky gaining only 22 net rushing yards and QB Will Rogers was was 25 of 37 for 203 yards with one TD and one interception. The past four meetings have stayed UNDER, including Alabama's 49-9 rout last year and the Bulldogs have scored a total of just 16 points the past four meetings. The UNDER is 27-13 in MSU's past 40 conference games and 15-5 UNDER its past 20 October games. The UNDER is 17-4-1 the past 22 meetings and the Tide is 6-0 UNDER following a loss. Take the UNDER as a Max Play. 

Alabama isn't rebuilding, but they did lose a ton of experience and talent to the NFL. Alabama nipped Florida, 31-29, as a 14-point favorite, and last week lost, 41-38, to unranked Texas A&M as 19-point chalk. Alabama plays its second straight road game and is 6-14 ATS following a defeat. Mississippi State has had two weeks to rest and prepare, and they will be sky-high with the wounded defending champs in town. They've beaten NC State (24-10) and Texas A&M (26-22) as underdogs. QB Will Rogers (14 TDs, 2 INTs) leads a potent passing attack that is fifth in the country with 372.4 yards per game for two-time National Coach of the Year Mike Leach. Also, Leach is 35-20 ATS against teams that average 450+ yards per game. Play Mississippi State.